Matchup · Saturday, April 18, 2026
Chicago White Sox
at Athletics
4:05 PM ET · 1:05 PM PTSutter Health Park, Sacramentoopen roof
The Headline
Everson Pereira enters this game with a 14.7% model-estimated probability of homering at Sutter Health Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor100
RHB HR factor102
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Erick Fedde
HR VulnerabilityAverage
Contact Quality AllowedLeague average
ERA3.38
WHIP1.06
IP16.0
HR/91.10
K/96.8
xwOBA0.281
Barrel%8.5%
Hard-hit%40.4%
Home Starter · RHP
Luis Severino
HR VulnerabilityGood
Contact Quality AllowedBelow average
ERA5.59
WHIP1.71
IP19.1
HR/90.90
K/911.2
xwOBA0.351
Barrel%10.9%
Hard-hit%50.0%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Chicago White Sox
Everson Pereira
RHB·3 HR / 30 PA·Brl 22.2%
14.7%
Munetaka Murakami
LHB·6 HR / 83 PA·Brl 23.7%
14.2%
Colson Montgomery
LHB·3 HR / 78 PA·Brl 9.5%
12.7%
Tanner Murray
RHB·1 HR / 21 PA·Brl 6.3%
12.5%
Miguel Vargas
RHB·2 HR / 81 PA·Brl 11.1%
vs SP: 2-for-4 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 4 PA
11.4%
Derek Hill
RHB·0 HR / 25 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-5 · .000 · 0 HR · 3 K · 6 PA
11.1%
Sam Antonacci
LHB·0 HR / 13 PA·Brl 10.0%
11.0%
Andrew Benintendi
LHB·0 HR / 59 PA·Brl 12.5%
vs SP: 12-for-36 · .333 · 2 HR · 6 K · 40 PA
10.3%
Reese McGuire
LHB·0 HR / 21 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 2-for-6 · .333 · 0 HR · 2 K · 7 PA
9.9%
Edgar Quero
SHB·0 HR / 56 PA·Brl 0.0%
9.6%
Chase Meidroth
RHB·1 HR / 78 PA·Brl 3.8%
9.6%
Luisangel Acuña
RHB·0 HR / 63 PA·Brl 4.0%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
9.4%
Home Lineup
Athletics
vs Erick Fedde
Shea Langeliers
RHB·6 HR / 83 PA·Brl 13.5%
14.5%
Tyler Soderstrom
LHB·2 HR / 85 PA·Brl 10.7%
12.3%
Carlos Cortes
LHB·1 HR / 39 PA·Brl 12.9%
12.0%
Zack Gelof
RHB·0 HR / 5 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.9%
Lawrence Butler
LHB·2 HR / 68 PA·Brl 6.7%
11.7%
Max Muncy
RHB·2 HR / 74 PA·Brl 12.5%
11.7%
Nick Kurtz
LHB·1 HR / 85 PA·Brl 17.1%
11.5%
Andy Ibáñez
RHB·0 HR / 15 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.4%
Darell Hernaiz
RHB·0 HR / 21 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.0%
Austin Wynns
RHB·0 HR / 18 PA·Brl 13.3%
10.5%
Jacob Wilson
RHB·1 HR / 81 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.3%
Denzel Clarke
RHB·0 HR / 55 PA·Brl 3.3%
10.3%
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.