Matchup · Saturday, April 18, 2026
Detroit Tigers
at Boston Red Sox
4:10 PM ET · 1:10 PM PTFenway Park, Bostonopen roof
The Headline
Dillon Dingler enters this game with a 13.1% model-estimated probability of homering at Fenway Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor95
RHB HR factor99
Probable Starters
Away Starter · LHP
Tarik Skubal
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedAbove average
ERA2.22
WHIP0.95
IP24.1
HR/90.40
K/98.5
xwOBA0.314
Barrel%7.5%
Hard-hit%38.8%
Home Starter · RHP
Brayan Bello
HR VulnerabilityAverage
Contact Quality AllowedLeague average
ERA6.14
WHIP1.91
IP14.2
HR/91.20
K/95.5
xwOBA0.371
Barrel%9.3%
Hard-hit%31.5%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Detroit Tigers
vs Brayan Bello
Dillon Dingler
RHB·4 HR / 66 PA·Brl 20.5%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
13.1%
Kerry Carpenter
LHB·3 HR / 62 PA·Brl 12.9%
vs SP: 3-for-4 · .750 · 1 HR · 0 K · 5 PA
12.5%
Matt Vierling
RHB·1 HR / 31 PA·Brl 4.2%
vs SP: 2-for-7 · .286 · 0 HR · 1 K · 7 PA
11.5%
Wenceel Pérez
SHB·1 HR / 20 PA·Brl 11.8%
vs SP: 2-for-3 · .667 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
11.1%
Jahmai Jones
RHB·0 HR / 17 PA·Brl 9.1%
10.6%
Riley Greene
LHB·1 HR / 81 PA·Brl 13.5%
vs SP: 4-for-8 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 9 PA
10.5%
Kevin McGonigle
LHB·1 HR / 85 PA·Brl 9.8%
10.0%
Gleyber Torres
RHB·1 HR / 86 PA·Brl 6.9%
vs SP: 8-for-24 · .333 · 0 HR · 6 K · 25 PA
10.0%
Spencer Torkelson
RHB·0 HR / 73 PA·Brl 7.5%
vs SP: 3-for-4 · .750 · 1 HR · 0 K · 4 PA
9.5%
Javier Báez
RHB·1 HR / 54 PA·Brl 2.5%
vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 5 PA
9.4%
Jake Rogers
RHB·0 HR / 16 PA·Brl 11.1%
9.3%
Colt Keith
LHB·0 HR / 63 PA·Brl 8.9%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
9.2%
Home Lineup
Boston Red Sox
vs Tarik Skubal
Willson Contreras
RHB·3 HR / 76 PA·Brl 15.0%
vs SP: 2-for-6 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 6 PA
12.7%
Roman Anthony
LHB·1 HR / 80 PA·Brl 12.5%
10.9%
Marcelo Mayer
LHB·1 HR / 59 PA·Brl 10.3%
10.8%
Wilyer Abreu
LHB·3 HR / 75 PA·Brl 13.2%
10.6%
Jarren Duran
LHB·1 HR / 71 PA·Brl 11.4%
vs SP: 2-for-9 · .222 · 0 HR · 2 K · 9 PA
10.5%
Andruw Monasterio
RHB·0 HR / 22 PA·Brl 7.1%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
10.4%
Trevor Story
RHB·2 HR / 85 PA·Brl 5.3%
vs SP: 2-for-8 · .250 · 0 HR · 2 K · 8 PA
10.1%
Carlos Narváez
RHB·0 HR / 43 PA·Brl 7.1%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
10.1%
Ceddanne Rafaela
RHB·1 HR / 61 PA·Brl 7.1%
vs SP: 1-for-6 · .167 · 0 HR · 4 K · 6 PA
9.8%
Masataka Yoshida
LHB·0 HR / 38 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
9.7%
Connor Wong
RHB·0 HR / 24 PA·Brl 5.6%
vs SP: 2-for-5 · .400 · 0 HR · 0 K · 5 PA
8.6%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa
RHB·0 HR / 20 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 1-for-6 · .167 · 0 HR · 0 K · 6 PA
8.3%
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.