Matchup · Sunday, April 19, 2026
New York Mets
at Chicago Cubs
2:20 PM EDTWrigley Field, Chicagoopen roof
The Headline
Ian Happ enters this game with a 14.9% model-estimated probability of homering at Wrigley Field, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor104
RHB HR factor103
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Tobias Myers
HR VulnerabilityVulnerable
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA3.46
WHIP0.77
IP13.0
HR/91.40
K/96.2
xwOBA0.264
Barrel%5.3%
Hard-hit%39.5%
Home Starter · RHP
Javier Assad
HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA8.10
WHIP1.60
IP10.0
HR/91.80
K/95.4
xwOBA0.343
Barrel%5.7%
Hard-hit%37.1%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
New York Mets
vs Javier Assad
Francisco Alvarez
RHB·4 HR / 67 PA·Brl 20.0%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
14.7%
Jorge Polanco
SHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 1 HR · 2 K · 3 PA
12.5%
Hayden Senger
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
12.4%
Tyrone Taylor
RHB·1 HR / 28 PA·Brl 8.7%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
12.3%
Tommy Pham
RHB·0 HR / 8 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 1-for-7 · .143 · 1 HR · 1 K · 7 PA
12.2%
Mark Vientos
RHB·2 HR / 53 PA·Brl 2.8%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.1%
MJ Melendez
LHB·0 HR / 12 PA·Brl 50.0%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
11.8%
Luis Torrens
RHB·0 HR / 19 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.7%
Luis Robert Jr.
RHB·2 HR / 78 PA·Brl 4.3%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
11.7%
Francisco Lindor
SHB·1 HR / 95 PA·Brl 9.4%
vs SP: 3-for-7 · .429 · 1 HR · 0 K · 9 PA
11.2%
Marcus Semien
RHB·1 HR / 82 PA·Brl 5.4%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
11.1%
Bo Bichette
RHB·1 HR / 94 PA·Brl 1.6%
vs SP: 2-for-4 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 5 PA
10.7%
Home Lineup
Chicago Cubs
vs Tobias Myers
Ian Happ
SHB·6 HR / 84 PA·Brl 18.6%
vs SP: 2-for-6 · .333 · 1 HR · 1 K · 9 PA
14.9%
Moisés Ballesteros
LHB·3 HR / 46 PA·Brl 15.6%
14.6%
Dansby Swanson
RHB·4 HR / 82 PA·Brl 13.3%
vs SP: 2-for-7 · .286 · 0 HR · 0 K · 8 PA
14.4%
Matt Shaw
RHB·2 HR / 57 PA·Brl 9.3%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
12.9%
Nico Hoerner
RHB·3 HR / 92 PA·Brl 2.9%
vs SP: 2-for-8 · .250 · 1 HR · 1 K · 8 PA
12.5%
Miguel Amaya
RHB·1 HR / 40 PA·Brl 4.8%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
11.9%
Carson Kelly
RHB·2 HR / 60 PA·Brl 12.2%
vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 4 PA
11.9%
Michael Conforto
LHB·0 HR / 28 PA·Brl 8.3%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
11.3%
Pete Crow-Armstrong
LHB·1 HR / 84 PA·Brl 3.8%
vs SP: 2-for-6 · .333 · 0 HR · 3 K · 7 PA
11.2%
Seiya Suzuki
RHB·0 HR / 37 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-8 · .000 · 0 HR · 4 K · 8 PA
11.2%
Alex Bregman
RHB·2 HR / 93 PA·Brl 6.2%
10.6%
Michael Busch
LHB·0 HR / 80 PA·Brl 3.9%
vs SP: 5-for-9 · .556 · 1 HR · 1 K · 9 PA
10.5%
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.