Matchup · Monday, April 20, 2026
Atlanta Braves
at Washington Nationals
6:45 PM ET · 3:45 PM PTNationals Park, Washingtonopen roof
The Headline
James Wood enters this game with a 15.9% model-estimated probability of homering at Nationals Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor102
RHB HR factor101
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Bryce Elder
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA0.77
WHIP1.03
IP23.1
HR/90.40
K/98.9
xwOBA0.245
Barrel%1.7%
Hard-hit%31.7%
Home Starter · RHP
Jake Irvin
HR VulnerabilityVulnerable
Contact Quality AllowedGetting barreled
ERA6.16
WHIP1.47
IP19.0
HR/91.40
K/910.0
xwOBA0.355
Barrel%14.8%
Hard-hit%48.1%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Atlanta Braves
vs Jake Irvin
Matt Olson
LHB·5 HR / 94 PA·Brl 19.6%
vs SP: 3-for-16 · .188 · 1 HR · 5 K · 17 PA
15.3%
Dominic Smith
LHB·4 HR / 50 PA·Brl 9.5%
vs SP: 2-for-6 · .333 · 0 HR · 2 K · 6 PA
14.5%
Austin Riley
RHB·3 HR / 89 PA·Brl 11.5%
vs SP: 3-for-9 · .333 · 0 HR · 3 K · 11 PA
13.9%
Drake Baldwin
LHB·5 HR / 96 PA·Brl 14.1%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
13.8%
Michael Harris II
LHB·3 HR / 70 PA·Brl 17.6%
vs SP: 7-for-18 · .389 · 0 HR · 3 K · 20 PA
13.5%
Ozzie Albies
SHB·4 HR / 90 PA·Brl 2.9%
vs SP: 2-for-11 · .182 · 0 HR · 0 K · 13 PA
13.1%
Jorge Mateo
RHB·1 HR / 20 PA·Brl 16.7%
12.8%
Kyle Farmer
RHB·0 HR / 7 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
12.0%
Mauricio Dubón
RHB·2 HR / 78 PA·Brl 6.7%
11.9%
Ronald Acuña Jr.
RHB·1 HR / 95 PA·Brl 15.6%
vs SP: 3-for-5 · .600 · 0 HR · 0 K · 5 PA
11.7%
Eli White
RHB·0 HR / 21 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-6 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 6 PA
11.5%
Jonah Heim
SHB·0 HR / 26 PA·Brl 5.6%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
11.1%
Home Lineup
Washington Nationals
vs Bryce Elder
James Wood
LHB·7 HR / 104 PA·Brl 28.3%
vs SP: 2-for-6 · .333 · 1 HR · 1 K · 6 PA
15.9%
CJ Abrams
LHB·6 HR / 87 PA·Brl 13.3%
vs SP: 6-for-15 · .400 · 0 HR · 0 K · 17 PA
14.9%
Joey Wiemer
RHB·2 HR / 47 PA·Brl 8.0%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.0%
Curtis Mead
RHB·1 HR / 44 PA·Brl 5.7%
11.7%
Luis García Jr.
LHB·1 HR / 69 PA·Brl 7.1%
vs SP: 5-for-11 · .455 · 0 HR · 2 K · 12 PA
11.0%
Keibert Ruiz
SHB·1 HR / 41 PA·Brl 5.9%
vs SP: 2-for-5 · .400 · 0 HR · 0 K · 5 PA
10.9%
Jacob Young
RHB·2 HR / 63 PA·Brl 6.0%
10.9%
Brady House
RHB·2 HR / 82 PA·Brl 7.5%
10.6%
Daylen Lile
LHB·1 HR / 97 PA·Brl 3.9%
vs SP: 2-for-3 · .667 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
10.2%
José Tena
LHB·0 HR / 36 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
10.1%
Drew Millas
SHB·0 HR / 38 PA·Brl 3.8%
9.9%
Jorbit Vivas
LHB·0 HR / 54 PA·Brl 0.0%
9.7%
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.