Matchup · Tuesday, April 21, 2026
Atlanta Braves
at Washington Nationals
6:45 PM ET · 3:45 PM PTNationals Park, Washingtonopen roof
The Headline
James Wood enters this game with a 16.5% model-estimated probability of homering at Nationals Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor102
RHB HR factor101
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Reynaldo López
HR VulnerabilityAverage
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA2.18
WHIP1.11
IP20.2
HR/91.30
K/98.3
xwOBA0.310
Barrel%5.4%
Hard-hit%35.7%
Home Starter · LHP
Foster Griffin
HR VulnerabilityAverage
Contact Quality AllowedBelow average
ERA3.05
WHIP1.26
IP20.2
HR/91.30
K/98.3
xwOBA0.329
Barrel%11.7%
Hard-hit%40.0%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Atlanta Braves
Matt Olson
LHB·6 HR / 104 PA·Brl 18.6%
15.4%
Michael Harris II
LHB·4 HR / 78 PA·Brl 16.7%
14.4%
Dominic Smith
LHB·4 HR / 58 PA·Brl 8.9%
14.2%
Drake Baldwin
LHB·5 HR / 106 PA·Brl 16.2%
13.7%
Austin Riley
RHB·3 HR / 99 PA·Brl 10.8%
13.7%
Jorge Mateo
RHB·1 HR / 24 PA·Brl 16.7%
12.6%
Ozzie Albies
SHB·4 HR / 98 PA·Brl 2.8%
12.3%
Kyle Farmer
RHB·0 HR / 7 PA·Brl 0.0%
12.0%
Ronald Acuña Jr.
RHB·1 HR / 103 PA·Brl 14.9%
11.6%
Eli White
RHB·0 HR / 24 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.4%
Mauricio Dubón
RHB·2 HR / 82 PA·Brl 6.5%
11.2%
Jonah Heim
SHB·0 HR / 26 PA·Brl 5.6%
11.1%
Home Lineup
Washington Nationals
James Wood
LHB·7 HR / 112 PA·Brl 27.8%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 4 PA
16.5%
CJ Abrams
LHB·6 HR / 95 PA·Brl 14.1%
vs SP: 1-for-7 · .143 · 1 HR · 4 K · 7 PA
14.4%
Curtis Mead
RHB·2 HR / 48 PA·Brl 7.7%
12.6%
Joey Wiemer
RHB·2 HR / 50 PA·Brl 7.7%
11.7%
Daylen Lile
LHB·2 HR / 101 PA·Brl 3.9%
11.6%
Luis García Jr.
LHB·1 HR / 76 PA·Brl 7.0%
vs SP: 2-for-6 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 6 PA
11.3%
Keibert Ruiz
SHB·1 HR / 44 PA·Brl 5.4%
vs SP: 2-for-6 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 6 PA
11.2%
Jacob Young
RHB·2 HR / 71 PA·Brl 5.7%
vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 4 PA
11.1%
Brady House
RHB·2 HR / 90 PA·Brl 10.7%
11.1%
José Tena
LHB·0 HR / 40 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 4 PA
10.4%
Drew Millas
SHB·0 HR / 41 PA·Brl 3.8%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
10.3%
Jorbit Vivas
LHB·0 HR / 54 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.2%
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.