Matchup · Wednesday, April 22, 2026
Athletics
at Seattle Mariners
4:10 PM ET · 1:10 PM PTT-Mobile Park, Seattleretractable roof
The Headline
Luke Raley enters this game with a 13.3% model-estimated probability of homering at T-Mobile Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor92
RHB HR factor89
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Aaron Civale
HR VulnerabilityGood
Contact Quality AllowedAbove average
ERA3.54
WHIP1.33
IP20.1
HR/90.90
K/97.1
xwOBA0.320
Barrel%6.2%
Hard-hit%52.3%
Home Starter · RHP
Logan Gilbert
HR VulnerabilityGood
Contact Quality AllowedLeague average
ERA4.03
WHIP1.17
IP29.0
HR/90.90
K/99.9
xwOBA0.282
Barrel%9.1%
Hard-hit%45.5%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Athletics
Shea Langeliers
RHB·8 HR / 103 PA·Brl 12.9%
vs SP: 2-for-20 · .100 · 2 HR · 10 K · 20 PA
12.8%
H 67·K 70
Nick Kurtz
LHB·3 HR / 105 PA·Brl 21.4%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 3 PA
12.7%
H 65·K 72
Carlos Cortes
LHB·2 HR / 53 PA·Brl 15.0%
12.1%
H 70·K 55
Tyler Soderstrom
LHB·2 HR / 105 PA·Brl 9.0%
vs SP: 1-for-7 · .143 · 1 HR · 6 K · 7 PA
11.3%
H 60·K 60
Darell Hernaiz
RHB·1 HR / 25 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 2 PA
11.2%
H 63·K 65
Zack Gelof
RHB·0 HR / 17 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 2-for-6 · .333 · 1 HR · 2 K · 6 PA
10.6%
H 63·K 65
Lawrence Butler
LHB·2 HR / 83 PA·Brl 5.7%
vs SP: 1-for-7 · .143 · 0 HR · 1 K · 8 PA
10.5%
H 59·K 66
Jacob Wilson
RHB·2 HR / 101 PA·Brl 2.4%
vs SP: 2-for-4 · .500 · 1 HR · 0 K · 4 PA
10.3%
H 66·K 55
Austin Wynns
RHB·0 HR / 23 PA·Brl 11.1%
10.3%
H 57·K 65
Andy Ibáñez
RHB·0 HR / 18 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 1-for-9 · .111 · 0 HR · 2 K · 9 PA
10.0%
H 61·K 63
Max Muncy
RHB·2 HR / 93 PA·Brl 14.0%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 2 PA
9.9%
H 59·K 74
Denzel Clarke
RHB·0 HR / 60 PA·Brl 3.1%
9.4%
H 61·K 75
Home Lineup
Seattle Mariners
vs Aaron Civale
Luke Raley
LHB·5 HR / 77 PA·Brl 21.4%
13.3%
H 66·K 71
Cal Raleigh
SHB·4 HR / 109 PA·Brl 9.7%
vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 0 HR · 0 K · 6 PA
12.6%
H 59·K 62
Dominic Canzone
LHB·3 HR / 58 PA·Brl 16.7%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.2%
H 65·K 59
Rob Refsnyder
RHB·1 HR / 30 PA·Brl 5.6%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
11.6%
H 62·K 60
Brendan Donovan
LHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
11.6%
H 64·K 61
Randy Arozarena
RHB·2 HR / 105 PA·Brl 9.1%
11.3%
H 63·K 66
Will Wilson
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
11.2%
H 64·K 62
Josh Naylor
LHB·2 HR / 99 PA·Brl 5.7%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
10.9%
H 67·K 55
Connor Joe
RHB·0 HR / 9 PA·Brl 20.0%
10.8%
H 64·K 62
Mitch Garver
RHB·0 HR / 27 PA·Brl 9.1%
vs SP: 2-for-9 · .222 · 2 HR · 2 K · 10 PA
10.2%
H 63·K 62
J.P. Crawford
LHB·1 HR / 69 PA·Brl 13.2%
vs SP: 3-for-12 · .250 · 0 HR · 2 K · 14 PA
10.2%
H 58·K 54
Julio Rodríguez
RHB·1 HR / 107 PA·Brl 6.3%
vs SP: 5-for-12 · .417 · 1 HR · 2 K · 12 PA
10.0%
H 67·K 63
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.