Matchup · Friday, April 24, 2026
Athletics
at Texas Rangers
8:05 PM ET · 5:05 PM PTGlobe Life Field, Arlingtonretractable roof
The Headline
Nick Kurtz enters this game with a 15.2% model-estimated probability of homering at Globe Life Field, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor98
RHB HR factor96
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Luis Severino
HR VulnerabilityVulnerable
Contact Quality AllowedBelow average
ERA6.20
WHIP1.70
IP24.2
HR/91.50
K/99.9
xwOBA0.376
Barrel%11.3%
Hard-hit%46.8%
Home Starter · RHP
Nathan Eovaldi
HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone
Contact Quality AllowedAbove average
ERA5.06
WHIP1.54
IP26.2
HR/91.70
K/99.8
xwOBA0.321
Barrel%7.1%
Hard-hit%46.4%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Athletics
Nick Kurtz
LHB·4 HR / 110 PA·Brl 22.9%
vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 4 K · 5 PA
15.2%
H 68·K 71
Shea Langeliers
RHB·8 HR / 108 PA·Brl 13.0%
vs SP: 5-for-15 · .333 · 1 HR · 5 K · 15 PA
15.0%
H 66·K 68
Carlos Cortes
LHB·2 HR / 58 PA·Brl 12.5%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
13.1%
H 72·K 55
Darell Hernaiz
RHB·1 HR / 25 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 3 K · 4 PA
12.3%
H 64·K 65
Colby Thomas
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
12.3%
H 64·K 65
Tyler Soderstrom
LHB·2 HR / 109 PA·Brl 10.7%
vs SP: 2-for-8 · .250 · 0 HR · 0 K · 9 PA
12.2%
H 65·K 58
Denzel Clarke
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 2 PA
12.2%
H 64·K 65
Lawrence Butler
LHB·2 HR / 87 PA·Brl 5.6%
vs SP: 2-for-11 · .182 · 0 HR · 3 K · 13 PA
11.6%
H 61·K 71
Zack Gelof
RHB·0 HR / 17 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 2-for-7 · .286 · 0 HR · 5 K · 8 PA
11.4%
H 64·K 65
Andy Ibáñez
RHB·0 HR / 18 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 4 PA
11.2%
H 63·K 65
Jacob Wilson
RHB·2 HR / 105 PA·Brl 2.2%
vs SP: 2-for-8 · .250 · 0 HR · 0 K · 9 PA
11.1%
H 71·K 55
Austin Wynns
RHB·0 HR / 27 PA·Brl 9.5%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
11.1%
H 59·K 65
Home Lineup
Texas Rangers
Jake Burger
RHB·5 HR / 105 PA·Brl 10.6%
vs SP: 7-for-19 · .368 · 4 HR · 3 K · 22 PA
13.8%
H 63·K 70
Corey Seager
LHB·6 HR / 104 PA·Brl 15.3%
vs SP: 1-for-12 · .083 · 0 HR · 0 K · 13 PA
13.5%
H 57·K 71
Brandon Nimmo
LHB·4 HR / 115 PA·Brl 11.8%
vs SP: 5-for-13 · .385 · 1 HR · 4 K · 16 PA
13.2%
H 63·K 61
Josh Jung
RHB·3 HR / 88 PA·Brl 1.6%
vs SP: 2-for-11 · .182 · 0 HR · 4 K · 11 PA
13.2%
H 71·K 55
Alejandro Osuna
LHB·0 HR / 0 PA
12.3%
H 64·K 65
Wyatt Langford
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 1-for-6 · .167 · 1 HR · 1 K · 6 PA
12.3%
H 64·K 65
Andrew McCutchen
RHB·1 HR / 35 PA·Brl 17.6%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
12.2%
H 63·K 74
Evan Carter
LHB·3 HR / 91 PA·Brl 9.4%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
12.1%
H 62·K 62
Kyle Higashioka
RHB·1 HR / 38 PA·Brl 13.0%
vs SP: 2-for-3 · .667 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
11.9%
H 59·K 69
Danny Jansen
RHB·1 HR / 62 PA·Brl 5.7%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 4 PA
11.2%
H 61·K 74
Sam Haggerty
SHB·0 HR / 15 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.1%
H 63·K 65
Joc Pederson
LHB·1 HR / 68 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 5-for-11 · .455 · 1 HR · 3 K · 12 PA
10.7%
H 63·K 72
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.