Matchup · Friday, April 24, 2026
Boston Red Sox
at Baltimore Orioles
7:05 PM ET · 4:05 PM PTOriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimoreopen roof
The Headline
Gunnar Henderson enters this game with a 14.7% model-estimated probability of homering at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor102
RHB HR factor93
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Brayan Bello
HR VulnerabilityVulnerable
Contact Quality AllowedBelow average
ERA6.75
WHIP1.93
IP18.2
HR/91.50
K/96.3
xwOBA0.400
Barrel%11.9%
Hard-hit%35.8%
Home Starter · RHP
Brandon Young
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedAbove average
ERA0.00
WHIP0.80
IP5.0
HR/90.00
K/93.6
xwOBA0.278
Barrel%7.1%
Hard-hit%50.0%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Boston Red Sox
Willson Contreras
RHB·4 HR / 101 PA·Brl 14.8%
13.1%
H 61·K 68
Marcelo Mayer
LHB·1 HR / 68 PA·Brl 9.1%
11.5%
H 62·K 55
Jarren Duran
LHB·1 HR / 83 PA·Brl 14.0%
11.2%
H 62·K 69
Wilyer Abreu
LHB·3 HR / 99 PA·Brl 11.4%
11.2%
H 60·K 58
Roman Anthony
LHB·1 HR / 97 PA·Brl 10.9%
10.5%
H 58·K 58
Trevor Story
RHB·2 HR / 109 PA·Brl 4.5%
10.4%
H 58·K 68
Masataka Yoshida
LHB·0 HR / 52 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.2%
H 65·K 52
Connor Wong
RHB·0 HR / 30 PA·Brl 4.5%
10.0%
H 62·K 60
Andruw Monasterio
RHB·0 HR / 35 PA·Brl 4.3%
9.9%
H 62·K 62
Ceddanne Rafaela
RHB·1 HR / 83 PA·Brl 7.7%
9.9%
H 63·K 62
Isiah Kiner-Falefa
RHB·0 HR / 30 PA·Brl 0.0%
9.8%
H 63·K 60
Carlos Narváez
RHB·1 HR / 56 PA·Brl 5.4%
9.7%
H 62·K 66
Home Lineup
Baltimore Orioles
vs Brayan Bello
Gunnar Henderson
LHB·7 HR / 119 PA·Brl 9.9%
vs SP: 5-for-19 · .263 · 1 HR · 4 K · 22 PA
14.7%
H 58·K 69
Jeremiah Jackson
RHB·5 HR / 82 PA·Brl 10.0%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
14.7%
H 65·K 62
Samuel Basallo
LHB·3 HR / 74 PA·Brl 10.9%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
13.8%
H 63·K 61
Leody Taveras
SHB·2 HR / 62 PA·Brl 7.5%
vs SP: 3-for-3 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 4 PA
12.4%
H 66·K 57
Pete Alonso
RHB·3 HR / 110 PA·Brl 7.7%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
12.3%
H 61·K 63
Sam Huff
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
11.8%
H 65·K 61
Coby Mayo
RHB·2 HR / 69 PA·Brl 4.8%
vs SP: 1-for-6 · .167 · 0 HR · 1 K · 6 PA
11.5%
H 58·K 67
Adley Rutschman
SHB·1 HR / 43 PA·Brl 3.2%
vs SP: 2-for-15 · .133 · 0 HR · 4 K · 17 PA
11.4%
H 69·K 55
Weston Wilson
RHB·0 HR / 13 PA·Brl 20.0%
11.3%
H 65·K 61
Johnathan Rodríguez
RHB·0 HR / 11 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.2%
H 64·K 61
Colton Cowser
LHB·0 HR / 61 PA·Brl 11.1%
vs SP: 3-for-13 · .231 · 0 HR · 6 K · 14 PA
11.0%
H 64·K 70
Dylan Beavers
LHB·1 HR / 70 PA·Brl 4.3%
vs SP: 2-for-2 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
10.7%
H 62·K 62
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.