Matchup · Friday, April 24, 2026

Philadelphia Phillies
at Atlanta Braves

7:15 PM ET · 4:15 PM PTTruist Park, Atlantaopen roof

The Headline

Kyle Schwarber enters this game with a 16.7% model-estimated probability of homering at Truist Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.

Park Factors

LHB HR factor100

RHB HR factor104

Probable Starters

Away Starter · RHP

Andrew Painter

HR VulnerabilityElite

Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression

ERA4.42

WHIP1.36

IP18.1

HR/90.50

K/99.8

xwOBA0.275

Barrel%5.5%

Hard-hit%30.9%

Home Starter · RHP

Grant Holmes

HR VulnerabilityGood

Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression

ERA3.42

WHIP1.10

IP26.1

HR/91.00

K/97.2

xwOBA0.300

Barrel%5.3%

Hard-hit%40.0%

The Lineups

Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.

High

Medium

Low confidence

Away Lineup

Philadelphia Phillies

vs Grant Holmes

Kyle Schwarber

LHB·8 HR / 111 PA·Brl 21.6%

vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 1 HR · 2 K · 6 PA

16.7%

H 58·K 70

Bryce Harper

LHB·5 HR / 105 PA·Brl 13.9%

vs SP: 0-for-0 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA

14.2%

H 62·K 54

Felix Reyes

RHB·1 HR / 15 PA·Brl 0.0%

13.2%

H 63·K 62

Brandon Marsh

LHB·4 HR / 85 PA·Brl 5.0%

vs SP: 1-for-6 · .167 · 0 HR · 3 K · 6 PA

vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 4 PA

12.3%

H 63·K 61

Edmundo Sosa

RHB·1 HR / 38 PA·Brl 3.7%

vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA

12.0%

H 63·K 59

Rafael Marchán

SHB·1 HR / 36 PA·Brl 3.8%

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA

11.8%

H 56·K 64

Dylan Moore

RHB·0 HR / 11 PA·Brl 0.0%

11.7%

H 63·K 62

Trea Turner

RHB·2 HR / 111 PA·Brl 3.8%

vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 0 HR · 1 K · 5 PA

11.6%

H 58·K 55

Adolis García

RHB·3 HR / 98 PA·Brl 10.2%

vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 2 K · 4 PA

10.9%

H 58·K 68

Alec Bohm

RHB·1 HR / 97 PA·Brl 0.0%

vs SP: 0-for-5 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 5 PA

9.9%

H 57·K 59

Home Lineup

Atlanta Braves

vs Andrew Painter

Michael Harris II

LHB·6 HR / 90 PA·Brl 18.2%

vs SP: 2-for-2 · 1.000 · 1 HR · 0 K · 2 PA

15.8%

H 72·K 59

Matt Olson

LHB·7 HR / 117 PA·Brl 19.7%

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA

15.5%

H 63·K 62

Drake Baldwin

LHB·7 HR / 120 PA·Brl 16.9%

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA

13.7%

H 67·K 69

Dominic Smith

LHB·4 HR / 63 PA·Brl 10.2%

vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA

13.4%

H 67·K 54

Austin Riley

RHB·3 HR / 112 PA·Brl 9.6%

vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA

13.0%

H 58·K 63

Ozzie Albies

SHB·5 HR / 111 PA·Brl 2.4%

vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA

12.3%

H 69·K 54

Eli White

RHB·1 HR / 28 PA·Brl 4.8%

12.3%

H 63·K 64

Jorge Mateo

RHB·1 HR / 25 PA·Brl 14.3%

12.1%

H 64·K 64

Kyle Farmer

RHB·0 HR / 7 PA·Brl 0.0%

11.5%

H 64·K 64

Ronald Acuña Jr.

RHB·1 HR / 118 PA·Brl 13.3%

vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA

11.0%

H 61·K 61

Mauricio Dubón

RHB·2 HR / 95 PA·Brl 7.2%

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA

10.7%

H 60·K 61

Jonah Heim

SHB·0 HR / 34 PA·Brl 4.0%

10.4%

H 66·K 58

A Note on These Numbers

HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.