Matchup · Friday, April 24, 2026
Pittsburgh Pirates
at Milwaukee Brewers
7:40 PM ET · 4:40 PM PTAmerican Family Field, Milwaukeeretractable roof
The Headline
Brandon Lowe enters this game with a 15.8% model-estimated probability of homering at American Family Field, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor106
RHB HR factor103
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Paul Skenes
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA3.27
WHIP0.91
IP22.0
HR/90.80
K/99.4
xwOBA0.247
Barrel%5.5%
Hard-hit%29.1%
Home Starter · RHP
Brandon Woodruff
HR VulnerabilityAverage
Contact Quality AllowedAbove average
ERA3.42
WHIP0.93
IP23.2
HR/91.10
K/97.6
xwOBA0.269
Barrel%7.2%
Hard-hit%31.9%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Pittsburgh Pirates
Brandon Lowe
LHB·7 HR / 97 PA·Brl 11.9%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 3 PA
15.8%
H 64·K 66
Oneil Cruz
LHB·8 HR / 112 PA·Brl 22.6%
vs SP: 2-for-9 · .222 · 0 HR · 4 K · 10 PA
15.5%
H 61·K 72
Ryan O'Hearn
LHB·4 HR / 96 PA·Brl 9.4%
13.3%
H 65·K 56
Marcell Ozuna
RHB·2 HR / 87 PA·Brl 8.9%
vs SP: 4-for-10 · .400 · 1 HR · 3 K · 10 PA
12.7%
H 66·K 66
Spencer Horwitz
LHB·2 HR / 76 PA·Brl 2.1%
vs SP: 0-for-5 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 5 PA
12.6%
H 63·K 52
Joey Bart
RHB·1 HR / 39 PA·Brl 10.5%
vs SP: 2-for-5 · .400 · 0 HR · 1 K · 5 PA
12.5%
H 62·K 72
Bryan Reynolds
SHB·3 HR / 110 PA·Brl 9.8%
vs SP: 3-for-21 · .143 · 0 HR · 11 K · 26 PA
11.9%
H 62·K 65
Nick Yorke
RHB·1 HR / 71 PA·Brl 6.0%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 2 PA
10.9%
H 58·K 56
Henry Davis
RHB·0 HR / 57 PA·Brl 5.3%
vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 4 PA
10.6%
H 61·K 58
Konnor Griffin
RHB·0 HR / 73 PA·Brl 9.3%
10.2%
H 57·K 71
Jake Mangum
SHB·0 HR / 57 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.2%
H 70·K 52
Nick Gonzales
RHB·0 HR / 82 PA·Brl 1.7%
vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 0 HR · 1 K · 4 PA
9.8%
H 66·K 58
Home Lineup
Milwaukee Brewers
vs Paul Skenes
Jake Bauers
LHB·5 HR / 83 PA·Brl 10.0%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 4 PA
14.5%
H 64·K 57
Gary Sánchez
RHB·5 HR / 69 PA·Brl 19.4%
14.4%
H 58·K 64
Brice Turang
LHB·4 HR / 103 PA·Brl 10.2%
vs SP: 2-for-10 · .200 · 1 HR · 3 K · 10 PA
13.3%
H 66·K 62
Greg Jones
SHB·0 HR / 11 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.2%
H 62·K 64
William Contreras
RHB·2 HR / 97 PA·Brl 7.1%
vs SP: 1-for-8 · .125 · 0 HR · 3 K · 8 PA
11.0%
H 66·K 54
Luis Matos
RHB·0 HR / 21 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
11.0%
H 61·K 64
Garrett Mitchell
LHB·1 HR / 77 PA·Brl 13.3%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
10.6%
H 62·K 74
Blake Perkins
SHB·0 HR / 44 PA·Brl 4.2%
vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 4 K · 4 PA
10.1%
H 60·K 67
David Hamilton
LHB·0 HR / 72 PA·Brl 2.3%
10.0%
H 64·K 59
Sal Frelick
LHB·1 HR / 88 PA·Brl 1.6%
vs SP: 2-for-10 · .200 · 1 HR · 2 K · 12 PA
9.8%
H 62·K 54
Joey Ortiz
RHB·0 HR / 65 PA·Brl 4.8%
vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 0 HR · 0 K · 4 PA
9.8%
H 61·K 67
Luis Rengifo
SHB·0 HR / 76 PA·Brl 7.3%
9.7%
H 61·K 56
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.