Matchup · Friday, April 24, 2026
Washington Nationals
at Chicago White Sox
7:40 PM ET · 4:40 PM PTRate Field, Chicagoopen roof
The Headline
Munetaka Murakami enters this game with a 19.9% model-estimated probability of homering at Rate Field, one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor108
RHB HR factor111
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Miles Mikolas
HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone
Contact Quality AllowedBelow average
ERA9.15
WHIP1.98
IP19.2
HR/92.80
K/96.9
xwOBA0.365
Barrel%11.0%
Hard-hit%45.2%
Home Starter · LHP
Bryan Hudson
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA1.69
WHIP1.59
IP10.2
HR/90.00
K/911.8
xwOBA0.322
Barrel%0.0%
Hard-hit%37.0%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Washington Nationals
vs Bryan Hudson
James Wood
LHB·10 HR / 127 PA·Brl 29.5%
17.9%
H 64·K 73
CJ Abrams
LHB·7 HR / 109 PA·Brl 12.9%
14.6%
H 60·K 55
Curtis Mead
RHB·3 HR / 55 PA·Brl 9.8%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 1 PA
14.3%
H 63·K 59
Joey Wiemer
RHB·3 HR / 53 PA·Brl 11.1%
13.4%
H 64·K 74
Daylen Lile
LHB·3 HR / 114 PA·Brl 5.7%
13.0%
H 71·K 55
Brady House
RHB·2 HR / 98 PA·Brl 9.8%
11.3%
H 65·K 73
Jacob Young
RHB·2 HR / 85 PA·Brl 4.6%
11.2%
H 65·K 58
Keibert Ruiz
SHB·1 HR / 50 PA·Brl 5.1%
10.7%
H 62·K 57
Luis García Jr.
LHB·1 HR / 86 PA·Brl 6.0%
10.6%
H 65·K 61
Drew Millas
SHB·0 HR / 46 PA·Brl 3.4%
10.5%
H 62·K 71
José Tena
LHB·0 HR / 48 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.5%
H 63·K 72
Jorbit Vivas
LHB·0 HR / 63 PA·Brl 2.3%
10.1%
H 64·K 55
Home Lineup
Chicago White Sox
Munetaka Murakami
LHB·10 HR / 109 PA·Brl 25.5%
19.9%
H 71·K 68
Colson Montgomery
LHB·7 HR / 102 PA·Brl 17.0%
18.8%
H 68·K 71
Miguel Vargas
RHB·5 HR / 107 PA·Brl 11.8%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
16.9%
H 66·K 52
Everson Pereira
RHB·3 HR / 55 PA·Brl 16.1%
16.3%
H 67·K 67
Sam Antonacci
LHB·1 HR / 31 PA·Brl 9.1%
14.2%
H 65·K 61
Tanner Murray
RHB·1 HR / 26 PA·Brl 5.3%
14.2%
H 64·K 61
Derek Hill
RHB·1 HR / 33 PA·Brl 5.6%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
14.2%
H 65·K 67
Andrew Benintendi
LHB·2 HR / 79 PA·Brl 11.6%
13.5%
H 66·K 69
Reese McGuire
LHB·0 HR / 34 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 4 PA
12.2%
H 67·K 62
Tristan Peters
LHB·0 HR / 58 PA·Brl 3.0%
11.3%
H 65·K 68
Edgar Quero
SHB·0 HR / 68 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.1%
H 61·K 59
Luisangel Acuña
RHB·0 HR / 69 PA·Brl 3.6%
11.1%
H 64·K 56
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.