Matchup · Saturday, April 25, 2026
Athletics
at Texas Rangers
7:05 PM ET · 4:05 PM PTGlobe Life Field, Arlingtonretractable roof
The Headline
Nick Kurtz enters this game with a 16.1% model-estimated probability of homering at Globe Life Field, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor98
RHB HR factor96
Probable Starters
Away Starter · LHP
Jeffrey Springs
HR VulnerabilityAverage
Contact Quality AllowedLeague average
ERA3.34
WHIP0.98
IP29.2
HR/91.20
K/98.2
xwOBA0.281
Barrel%8.8%
Hard-hit%31.3%
Home Starter · LHP
MacKenzie Gore
HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone
Contact Quality AllowedGetting barreled
ERA4.15
WHIP1.19
IP26.0
HR/91.70
K/912.1
xwOBA0.342
Barrel%16.7%
Hard-hit%48.3%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Athletics
Nick Kurtz
LHB·5 HR / 115 PA·Brl 22.9%
vs SP: 3-for-5 · .600 · 0 HR · 0 K · 6 PA
16.1%
H 66·K 72
Shea Langeliers
RHB·8 HR / 112 PA·Brl 13.0%
vs SP: 2-for-7 · .286 · 1 HR · 3 K · 8 PA
15.2%
H 65·K 70
Carlos Cortes
LHB·4 HR / 62 PA·Brl 12.5%
14.9%
H 70·K 57
Darell Hernaiz
RHB·1 HR / 25 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 3-for-4 · .750 · 1 HR · 1 K · 4 PA
12.5%
H 62·K 68
Tyler Soderstrom
LHB·3 HR / 113 PA·Brl 10.7%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 5 PA
12.4%
H 64·K 61
Colby Thomas
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.4%
H 63·K 68
Denzel Clarke
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
12.3%
H 63·K 68
Lawrence Butler
LHB·2 HR / 91 PA·Brl 5.6%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 2 PA
11.7%
H 59·K 74
Zack Gelof
RHB·1 HR / 21 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 2 K · 4 PA
11.5%
H 62·K 68
Andy Ibáñez
RHB·0 HR / 18 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.3%
H 62·K 68
Jacob Wilson
RHB·2 HR / 109 PA·Brl 2.2%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
11.3%
H 67·K 57
Austin Wynns
RHB·0 HR / 27 PA·Brl 9.5%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 4 PA
11.2%
H 57·K 68
Home Lineup
Texas Rangers
Corey Seager
LHB·6 HR / 108 PA·Brl 16.1%
vs SP: 2-for-9 · .222 · 1 HR · 1 K · 9 PA
14.5%
H 57·K 68
Jake Burger
RHB·5 HR / 109 PA·Brl 10.0%
vs SP: 1-for-7 · .143 · 0 HR · 1 K · 7 PA
13.6%
H 57·K 67
Brandon Nimmo
LHB·4 HR / 119 PA·Brl 11.5%
vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 0 HR · 0 K · 5 PA
13.0%
H 65·K 62
Evan Carter
LHB·3 HR / 95 PA·Brl 10.7%
12.9%
H 65·K 61
Josh Jung
RHB·3 HR / 92 PA·Brl 1.5%
vs SP: 4-for-11 · .364 · 1 HR · 2 K · 11 PA
12.7%
H 66·K 53
Andrew McCutchen
RHB·1 HR / 36 PA·Brl 16.7%
vs SP: 1-for-6 · .167 · 0 HR · 1 K · 7 PA
12.1%
H 62·K 72
Wyatt Langford
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 1-for-8 · .125 · 0 HR · 3 K · 9 PA
12.1%
H 63·K 63
Alejandro Osuna
LHB·0 HR / 6 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.8%
H 63·K 63
Kyle Higashioka
RHB·1 HR / 42 PA·Brl 13.0%
vs SP: 3-for-8 · .375 · 0 HR · 1 K · 8 PA
11.6%
H 57·K 67
Danny Jansen
RHB·1 HR / 62 PA·Brl 5.3%
vs SP: 1-for-8 · .125 · 0 HR · 2 K · 10 PA
11.1%
H 57·K 72
Sam Haggerty
SHB·0 HR / 16 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 3 PA
11.0%
H 62·K 63
Joc Pederson
LHB·1 HR / 71 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
10.5%
H 62·K 72
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.