Matchup · Saturday, April 25, 2026

Boston Red Sox
at Baltimore Orioles

12:05 PM ET · 9:05 AM PTOriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimoreopen roof

The Headline

Gunnar Henderson enters this game with a 15.3% model-estimated probability of homering at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.

Park Factors

LHB HR factor102

RHB HR factor93

Probable Starters

Away Starter · LHP

Garrett Crochet

HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone

Contact Quality AllowedBelow average

ERA7.88

WHIP1.63

IP24.0

HR/91.90

K/911.3

xwOBA0.366

Barrel%11.0%

Hard-hit%43.8%

Home Starter · LHP

Trevor Rogers

HR VulnerabilityGood

Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression

ERA4.08

WHIP1.33

IP28.2

HR/90.90

K/97.9

xwOBA0.295

Barrel%5.7%

Hard-hit%28.4%

The Lineups

Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.

High

Medium

Low confidence

Away Lineup

Boston Red Sox

vs Trevor Rogers

Willson Contreras

RHB·4 HR / 105 PA·Brl 14.3%

13.0%

H 59·K 69

Wilyer Abreu

LHB·4 HR / 103 PA·Brl 11.1%

12.2%

H 64·K 58

Jarren Duran

LHB·1 HR / 88 PA·Brl 13.2%

vs SP: 0-for-7 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 8 PA

11.1%

H 65·K 68

Carlos Narváez

RHB·1 HR / 60 PA·Brl 7.9%

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA

10.8%

H 66·K 69

Marcelo Mayer

LHB·1 HR / 72 PA·Brl 10.6%

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 2 PA

10.6%

H 63·K 53

Roman Anthony

LHB·1 HR / 97 PA·Brl 10.9%

vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 2 K · 3 PA

10.5%

H 59·K 59

Trevor Story

RHB·2 HR / 113 PA·Brl 4.3%

vs SP: 2-for-7 · .286 · 0 HR · 0 K · 8 PA

10.3%

H 59·K 69

Masataka Yoshida

LHB·0 HR / 56 PA·Brl 0.0%

vs SP: 2-for-2 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA

10.0%

H 64·K 53

Connor Wong

RHB·0 HR / 30 PA·Brl 4.5%

vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 0 HR · 0 K · 4 PA

10.0%

H 62·K 61

Andruw Monasterio

RHB·0 HR / 35 PA·Brl 4.3%

vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA

9.9%

H 63·K 63

Isiah Kiner-Falefa

RHB·0 HR / 30 PA·Brl 0.0%

vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA

9.8%

H 63·K 61

Ceddanne Rafaela

RHB·1 HR / 87 PA·Brl 7.1%

vs SP: 0-for-6 · .000 · 0 HR · 3 K · 6 PA

9.7%

H 58·K 59

Home Lineup

Baltimore Orioles

vs Garrett Crochet

Gunnar Henderson

LHB·8 HR / 124 PA·Brl 9.9%

vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 3 K · 6 PA

15.3%

H 57·K 75

Jeremiah Jackson

RHB·5 HR / 86 PA·Brl 10.0%

vs SP: 2-for-3 · .667 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA

15.1%

H 63·K 64

Samuel Basallo

LHB·4 HR / 79 PA·Brl 10.9%

14.5%

H 69·K 65

Adley Rutschman

SHB·3 HR / 48 PA·Brl 3.2%

vs SP: 1-for-6 · .167 · 1 HR · 0 K · 6 PA

14.2%

H 70·K 58

Coby Mayo

RHB·3 HR / 74 PA·Brl 4.8%

vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA

13.3%

H 60·K 69

Tyler O'Neill

RHB·1 HR / 34 PA·Brl 4.3%

vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 1 HR · 2 K · 5 PA

12.7%

H 67·K 63

Pete Alonso

RHB·3 HR / 115 PA·Brl 7.7%

vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 0 HR · 3 K · 4 PA

12.6%

H 62·K 70

Leody Taveras

SHB·2 HR / 67 PA·Brl 7.5%

12.5%

H 61·K 61

Dylan Beavers

LHB·2 HR / 75 PA·Brl 4.3%

RHB·0 HR / 13 PA·Brl 20.0%

11.6%

H 64·K 66

A Note on These Numbers

HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.