Matchup · Saturday, April 25, 2026
New York Yankees
at Houston Astros
7:10 PM ET · 4:10 PM PTDaikin Park, Houstonretractable roof
The Headline
Aaron Judge enters this game with a 18.1% model-estimated probability of homering at Daikin Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor101
RHB HR factor106
Probable Starters
Away Starter · LHP
Ryan Weathers
HR VulnerabilityAverage
Contact Quality AllowedGetting barreled
ERA3.18
WHIP1.24
IP28.1
HR/91.30
K/911.4
xwOBA0.340
Barrel%12.5%
Hard-hit%43.1%
Home Starter · RHP
Mike Burrows
HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA6.75
WHIP1.69
IP26.2
HR/91.70
K/98.4
xwOBA0.315
Barrel%5.7%
Hard-hit%35.6%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
New York Yankees
vs Mike Burrows
Aaron Judge
RHB·9 HR / 114 PA·Brl 25.4%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 1 PA
18.1%
H 65·K 69
Ben Rice
LHB·9 HR / 100 PA·Brl 21.3%
17.7%
H 65·K 69
Amed Rosario
RHB·4 HR / 58 PA·Brl 13.3%
14.7%
H 69·K 55
Trent Grisham
LHB·3 HR / 92 PA·Brl 10.9%
14.5%
H 60·K 61
Giancarlo Stanton
RHB·3 HR / 96 PA·Brl 19.0%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
14.4%
H 65·K 72
Paul Goldschmidt
RHB·1 HR / 29 PA·Brl 18.8%
13.4%
H 64·K 63
Ryan McMahon
LHB·2 HR / 63 PA·Brl 10.3%
13.0%
H 62·K 69
Cody Bellinger
LHB·3 HR / 107 PA·Brl 8.1%
12.8%
H 70·K 54
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
LHB·2 HR / 100 PA·Brl 3.6%
vs SP: 1-for-1 · 1.000 · 1 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
12.0%
H 61·K 71
Randal Grichuk
RHB·0 HR / 33 PA·Brl 20.0%
12.0%
H 67·K 71
José Caballero
RHB·2 HR / 93 PA·Brl 3.3%
11.9%
H 70·K 65
Austin Wells
LHB·1 HR / 75 PA·Brl 6.3%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
11.9%
H 63·K 53
Home Lineup
Houston Astros
Yordan Alvarez
LHB·11 HR / 121 PA·Brl 21.2%
17.5%
H 73·K 57
Christian Walker
RHB·5 HR / 110 PA·Brl 12.0%
vs SP: 2-for-6 · .333 · 0 HR · 2 K · 7 PA
14.0%
H 67·K 65
Shay Whitcomb
RHB·1 HR / 11 PA·Brl 33.3%
13.8%
H 62·K 67
Christian Vázquez
RHB·2 HR / 43 PA·Brl 3.6%
13.2%
H 70·K 65
Brice Matthews
RHB·1 HR / 46 PA·Brl 10.0%
13.1%
H 62·K 76
Nick Allen
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
12.5%
H 63·K 67
Joey Loperfido
LHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
12.4%
H 63·K 67
Taylor Trammell
LHB·0 HR / 0 PA
12.3%
H 63·K 67
Isaac Paredes
RHB·2 HR / 90 PA·Brl 3.4%
12.3%
H 65·K 59
Daniel Johnson
LHB·0 HR / 7 PA·Brl 0.0%
12.1%
H 63·K 67
Yainer Diaz
RHB·2 HR / 80 PA·Brl 3.2%
11.8%
H 57·K 57
Jose Altuve
RHB·3 HR / 116 PA·Brl 7.8%
11.7%
H 63·K 66
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.