Matchup · Saturday, April 25, 2026

Philadelphia Phillies
at Atlanta Braves

7:15 PM ET · 4:15 PM PTTruist Park, Atlantaopen roof

The Headline

Michael Harris II enters this game with a 16.4% model-estimated probability of homering at Truist Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.

Park Factors

LHB HR factor100

RHB HR factor104

Probable Starters

Away Starter · RHP

Zack Wheeler

HR Vulnerability—

Contact Quality Allowed—

ERA—

WHIP—

IP—

HR/9—

K/9—

xwOBA—

Barrel%undefined%

Hard-hit%undefined%

Home Starter · RHP

Bryce Elder

HR VulnerabilityElite

Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression

ERA1.50

WHIP0.97

IP30.0

HR/90.60

K/98.7

xwOBA0.263

Barrel%3.8%

Hard-hit%34.6%

The Lineups

Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.

High

Medium

Low confidence

Away Lineup

Philadelphia Phillies

vs Bryce Elder

Kyle Schwarber

LHB·8 HR / 116 PA·Brl 20.8%

vs SP: 0-for-6 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 10 PA

15.9%

H 56·K 73

Bryce Harper

LHB·6 HR / 110 PA·Brl 13.2%

vs SP: 1-for-7 · .143 · 0 HR · 0 K · 8 PA

13.8%

H 62·K 55

Brandon Marsh

LHB·4 HR / 90 PA·Brl 6.3%

vs SP: 4-for-7 · .571 · 0 HR · 0 K · 9 PA

12.8%

H 68·K 64

Felix Reyes

RHB·1 HR / 15 PA·Brl 0.0%

vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 1 HR · 0 K · 2 PA

vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 0 HR · 1 K · 5 PA

12.0%

H 63·K 64

Trea Turner

RHB·3 HR / 116 PA·Brl 3.7%

vs SP: 2-for-8 · .250 · 1 HR · 0 K · 11 PA

11.9%

H 57·K 59

Adolis García

RHB·3 HR / 103 PA·Brl 10.0%

vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 4 PA

11.6%

H 68·K 69

Edmundo Sosa

RHB·1 HR / 38 PA·Brl 3.4%

11.5%

H 64·K 60

Rafael Marchán

SHB·1 HR / 36 PA·Brl 3.8%

vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA

11.4%

H 55·K 66

Dylan Moore

RHB·0 HR / 11 PA·Brl 0.0%

11.2%

H 62·K 64

Alec Bohm

RHB·1 HR / 101 PA·Brl 1.4%

vs SP: 3-for-10 · .300 · 0 HR · 1 K · 10 PA

9.6%

H 60·K 61

Home Lineup

Atlanta Braves

vs Zack Wheeler

Michael Harris II

LHB·6 HR / 91 PA·Brl 18.6%

vs SP: 5-for-21 · .238 · 0 HR · 10 K · 22 PA

16.4%

H 72·K 57

Matt Olson

LHB·7 HR / 122 PA·Brl 18.9%

vs SP: 6-for-32 · .188 · 2 HR · 10 K · 34 PA

16.0%

H 68·K 57

Drake Baldwin

LHB·7 HR / 125 PA·Brl 16.7%

vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA

14.1%

H 69·K 67

Dominic Smith

LHB·4 HR / 67 PA·Brl 9.4%

vs SP: 13-for-33 · .394 · 1 HR · 8 K · 35 PA

13.9%

H 69·K 53

Austin Riley

RHB·3 HR / 116 PA·Brl 9.3%

vs SP: 12-for-45 · .267 · 1 HR · 15 K · 48 PA

13.4%

H 58·K 61

Eli White

RHB·1 HR / 30 PA·Brl 4.5%

12.7%

H 63·K 63

Ozzie Albies

SHB·5 HR / 115 PA·Brl 3.4%

vs SP: 9-for-52 · .173 · 3 HR · 9 K · 55 PA

12.6%

H 70·K 53

Jorge Mateo

RHB·1 HR / 26 PA·Brl 14.3%

12.4%

H 64·K 63

Ronald Acuña Jr.

RHB·2 HR / 123 PA·Brl 12.7%

vs SP: 12-for-49 · .245 · 4 HR · 13 K · 51 PA

12.1%

H 60·K 57

Kyle Farmer

RHB·0 HR / 7 PA·Brl 0.0%

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA

12.0%

H 64·K 63

Jonah Heim

SHB·0 HR / 34 PA·Brl 4.0%

vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 5 PA

10.8%

H 66·K 56

Mauricio Dubón

RHB·2 HR / 99 PA·Brl 7.0%

vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA

10.3%

H 59·K 58

A Note on These Numbers

HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.