Matchup · Saturday, April 25, 2026
Washington Nationals
at Chicago White Sox
4:10 PM ET · 1:10 PM PTRate Field, Chicagoopen roof
The Headline
Munetaka Murakami enters this game with a 18.7% model-estimated probability of homering at Rate Field, one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor108
RHB HR factor111
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Jake Irvin
HR VulnerabilityVulnerable
Contact Quality AllowedGetting barreled
ERA6.00
WHIP1.29
IP24.0
HR/91.50
K/99.4
xwOBA0.369
Barrel%14.9%
Hard-hit%52.2%
Home Starter · LHP
Noah Schultz
HR VulnerabilityGood
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA3.86
WHIP0.96
IP9.1
HR/91.00
K/99.6
xwOBA0.258
Barrel%0.0%
Hard-hit%30.4%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Washington Nationals
vs Noah Schultz
James Wood
LHB·10 HR / 132 PA·Brl 30.2%
18.0%
H 64·K 73
CJ Abrams
LHB·7 HR / 113 PA·Brl 13.9%
14.8%
H 59·K 56
Curtis Mead
RHB·3 HR / 55 PA·Brl 9.8%
14.6%
H 62·K 57
Joey Wiemer
RHB·3 HR / 53 PA·Brl 10.7%
13.7%
H 64·K 73
Daylen Lile
LHB·3 HR / 118 PA·Brl 5.6%
13.1%
H 70·K 54
Brady House
RHB·3 HR / 102 PA·Brl 9.8%
11.8%
H 65·K 72
Jacob Young
RHB·2 HR / 89 PA·Brl 4.4%
11.3%
H 63·K 56
Keibert Ruiz
SHB·1 HR / 50 PA·Brl 4.9%
10.9%
H 62·K 56
Drew Millas
SHB·0 HR / 49 PA·Brl 3.4%
10.8%
H 61·K 64
Luis García Jr.
LHB·1 HR / 90 PA·Brl 5.8%
10.7%
H 65·K 60
José Tena
LHB·0 HR / 49 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.7%
H 63·K 71
Jorbit Vivas
LHB·0 HR / 67 PA·Brl 2.2%
10.2%
H 64·K 54
Home Lineup
Chicago White Sox
vs Jake Irvin
Munetaka Murakami
LHB·11 HR / 113 PA·Brl 24.5%
18.7%
H 70·K 74
Colson Montgomery
LHB·7 HR / 106 PA·Brl 15.8%
vs SP: 2-for-3 · .667 · 1 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
17.5%
H 68·K 69
Miguel Vargas
RHB·5 HR / 111 PA·Brl 13.9%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
15.9%
H 68·K 54
Everson Pereira
RHB·3 HR / 56 PA·Brl 14.7%
15.0%
H 67·K 69
Andrew Benintendi
LHB·2 HR / 82 PA·Brl 13.0%
13.7%
H 66·K 72
Derek Hill
RHB·1 HR / 33 PA·Brl 5.6%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
13.5%
H 64·K 64
Tanner Murray
RHB·1 HR / 26 PA·Brl 5.3%
13.5%
H 63·K 64
Sam Antonacci
LHB·1 HR / 35 PA·Brl 8.0%
13.1%
H 64·K 54
Reese McGuire
LHB·0 HR / 34 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 2-for-7 · .286 · 1 HR · 0 K · 7 PA
11.5%
H 63·K 68
Tristan Peters
LHB·0 HR / 62 PA·Brl 2.7%
10.6%
H 69·K 64
Edgar Quero
SHB·0 HR / 72 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
10.5%
H 61·K 63
Luisangel Acuña
RHB·0 HR / 73 PA·Brl 3.6%
10.5%
H 62·K 59
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.