Matchup · Sunday, April 26, 2026

Athletics
at Texas Rangers

2:35 PM ET · 11:35 AM PTGlobe Life Field, Arlingtonretractable roof

The Headline

Nick Kurtz enters this game with a 15.6% model-estimated probability of homering at Globe Life Field, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.

Park Factors

LHB HR factor98

RHB HR factor96

Probable Starters

Away Starter · RHP

J.T. Ginn

HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone

Contact Quality AllowedAbove average

ERA3.74

WHIP1.06

IP21.2

HR/91.70

K/97.1

xwOBA0.280

Barrel%6.6%

Hard-hit%31.1%

Home Starter · RHP

Kumar Rocker

HR VulnerabilityGood

Contact Quality AllowedAbove average

ERA3.48

WHIP1.31

IP20.2

HR/90.90

K/98.3

xwOBA0.310

Barrel%6.5%

Hard-hit%43.5%

The Lineups

Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.

High

Medium

Low confidence

Away Lineup

Athletics

vs Kumar Rocker

Nick Kurtz

LHB·5 HR / 120 PA·Brl 23.5%

vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 2 K · 4 PA

15.6%

H 66·K 67

Carlos Cortes

LHB·4 HR / 63 PA·Brl 15.4%

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA

14.9%

H 72·K 53

Shea Langeliers

RHB·8 HR / 117 PA·Brl 12.3%

vs SP: 3-for-6 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 7 PA

14.4%

H 61·K 61

Tyler Soderstrom

LHB·3 HR / 117 PA·Brl 12.7%

vs SP: 3-for-5 · .600 · 0 HR · 2 K · 7 PA

12.8%

H 65·K 53

Zack Gelof

RHB·1 HR / 25 PA·Brl 7.1%

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA

RHB·1 HR / 28 PA·Brl 0.0%

vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA

11.8%

H 64·K 63

Lawrence Butler

LHB·2 HR / 91 PA·Brl 5.3%

vs SP: 2-for-7 · .286 · 1 HR · 2 K · 7 PA

11.2%

H 57·K 69

Andy Ibáñez

RHB·0 HR / 18 PA·Brl 0.0%

10.8%

H 63·K 63

Jacob Wilson

RHB·2 HR / 113 PA·Brl 2.1%

vs SP: 4-for-6 · .667 · 0 HR · 0 K · 6 PA

10.7%

H 70·K 53

Austin Wynns

RHB·0 HR / 31 PA·Brl 9.5%

10.6%

H 58·K 58

Home Lineup

Texas Rangers

vs J.T. Ginn

Corey Seager

LHB·6 HR / 112 PA·Brl 15.2%

vs SP: 2-for-5 · .400 · 1 HR · 1 K · 5 PA

14.6%

H 63·K 66

Josh Jung

RHB·4 HR / 96 PA·Brl 2.9%

vs SP: 2-for-8 · .250 · 2 HR · 3 K · 9 PA

14.1%

H 69·K 52

Jake Burger

RHB·5 HR / 113 PA·Brl 9.5%

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA

13.9%

H 57·K 65

Brandon Nimmo

LHB·4 HR / 123 PA·Brl 12.3%

vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 1 HR · 0 K · 6 PA

13.3%

H 60·K 61

Evan Carter

LHB·3 HR / 98 PA·Brl 10.2%

vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 4 PA

vs SP: 6-for-13 · .462 · 0 HR · 2 K · 14 PA

12.5%

H 63·K 62

Alejandro Osuna

LHB·0 HR / 6 PA·Brl 0.0%

12.1%

H 64·K 62

Kyle Higashioka

RHB·1 HR / 42 PA·Brl 15.4%

vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA

12.0%

H 58·K 65

Andrew McCutchen

RHB·1 HR / 39 PA·Brl 15.8%

11.5%

H 63·K 71

Sam Haggerty

SHB·0 HR / 19 PA·Brl 0.0%

11.2%

H 63·K 62

Joc Pederson

LHB·1 HR / 72 PA·Brl 0.0%

vs SP: 2-for-6 · .333 · 1 HR · 2 K · 7 PA

10.8%

H 63·K 71

Danny Jansen

RHB·1 HR / 65 PA·Brl 5.3%

vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 4 PA

10.6%

H 59·K 70

A Note on These Numbers

HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.