Matchup · Sunday, April 26, 2026

New York Yankees
at Houston Astros

2:10 PM ET · 11:10 AM PTDaikin Park, Houstonretractable roof

The Headline

Yordan Alvarez enters this game with a 18.1% model-estimated probability of homering at Daikin Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.

Park Factors

LHB HR factor101

RHB HR factor106

Probable Starters

Away Starter · RHP

Luis Gil

HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone

Contact Quality AllowedBelow average

ERA4.11

WHIP1.17

IP15.1

HR/92.40

K/95.3

xwOBA0.358

Barrel%10.9%

Hard-hit%47.8%

Home Starter · RHP

Spencer Arrighetti

HR VulnerabilityElite

Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression

ERA2.45

WHIP1.45

IP11.0

HR/90.00

K/910.6

xwOBA0.353

Barrel%3.6%

Hard-hit%25.0%

The Lineups

Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.

High

Medium

Low confidence

Away Lineup

New York Yankees

vs Spencer Arrighetti

Aaron Judge

RHB·9 HR / 119 PA·Brl 24.6%

vs SP: 2-for-3 · .667 · 1 HR · 1 K · 3 PA

16.8%

H 63·K 71

Ben Rice

LHB·9 HR / 105 PA·Brl 21.6%

16.5%

H 65·K 71

Trent Grisham

LHB·4 HR / 97 PA·Brl 10.3%

13.7%

H 59·K 63

Amed Rosario

RHB·4 HR / 63 PA·Brl 13.3%

vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA

13.6%

H 67·K 57

Giancarlo Stanton

RHB·3 HR / 96 PA·Brl 18.0%

vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 1 HR · 1 K · 3 PA

13.4%

H 63·K 74

Ryan McMahon

LHB·2 HR / 68 PA·Brl 12.1%

vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 3 PA

13.1%

H 61·K 68

José Caballero

RHB·3 HR / 98 PA·Brl 3.1%

13.0%

H 69·K 63

Paul Goldschmidt

RHB·1 HR / 29 PA·Brl 18.8%

vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA

12.4%

H 62·K 64

Austin Wells

LHB·2 HR / 80 PA·Brl 6.3%

vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA

12.0%

H 60·K 54

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

LHB·2 HR / 105 PA·Brl 5.1%

11.9%

H 66·K 70

Cody Bellinger

LHB·3 HR / 112 PA·Brl 7.7%

11.8%

H 63·K 55

Randal Grichuk

RHB·0 HR / 33 PA·Brl 18.2%

11.1%

H 66·K 72

Home Lineup

Houston Astros

vs Luis Gil

Yordan Alvarez

LHB·11 HR / 125 PA·Brl 20.5%

vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA

18.1%

H 74·K 51

Christian Walker

RHB·6 HR / 114 PA·Brl 11.7%

vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 3 K · 4 PA

15.7%

H 69·K 62

Shay Whitcomb

RHB·1 HR / 11 PA·Brl 33.3%

14.2%

H 63·K 60

Christian Vázquez

RHB·2 HR / 47 PA·Brl 3.3%

vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA

RHB·2 HR / 84 PA·Brl 4.5%

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA

12.8%

H 64·K 60

Isaac Paredes

RHB·2 HR / 94 PA·Brl 3.3%

vs SP: 1-for-7 · .143 · 0 HR · 3 K · 8 PA

12.6%

H 66·K 52

Daniel Johnson

LHB·0 HR / 7 PA·Brl 0.0%

12.5%

H 64·K 60

Brice Matthews

RHB·1 HR / 49 PA·Brl 9.1%

12.4%

H 62·K 70

Jose Altuve

RHB·3 HR / 120 PA·Brl 7.5%

vs SP: 1-for-6 · .167 · 0 HR · 3 K · 6 PA

12.1%

H 59·K 56

A Note on These Numbers

HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.