Matchup · Sunday, April 26, 2026

Philadelphia Phillies
at Atlanta Braves

1:35 PM ET · 10:35 AM PTTruist Park, Atlantaopen roof

The Headline

Kyle Schwarber enters this game with a 18.7% model-estimated probability of homering at Truist Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.

Park Factors

LHB HR factor100

RHB HR factor104

Probable Starters

Away Starter · RHP

Aaron Nola

HR VulnerabilityVulnerable

Contact Quality AllowedAbove average

ERA5.06

WHIP1.46

IP26.2

HR/91.40

K/99.8

xwOBA0.342

Barrel%7.9%

Hard-hit%42.1%

Home Starter · LHP

Chris Sale

HR VulnerabilityVulnerable

Contact Quality AllowedAbove average

ERA2.79

WHIP1.00

IP29.0

HR/91.60

K/99.0

xwOBA0.284

Barrel%7.9%

Hard-hit%30.3%

The Lineups

Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.

High

Medium

Low confidence

Away Lineup

Philadelphia Phillies

vs Chris Sale

Kyle Schwarber

LHB·8 HR / 121 PA·Brl 21.8%

vs SP: 5-for-17 · .294 · 2 HR · 7 K · 18 PA

18.7%

H 53·K 70

Bryce Harper

LHB·6 HR / 115 PA·Brl 13.9%

vs SP: 2-for-12 · .167 · 0 HR · 5 K · 12 PA

15.1%

H 59·K 57

Brandon Marsh

LHB·4 HR / 95 PA·Brl 5.9%

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA

13.5%

H 70·K 62

Felix Reyes

RHB·1 HR / 15 PA·Brl 0.0%

vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 1 HR · 1 K · 3 PA

vs SP: 2-for-15 · .133 · 0 HR · 6 K · 15 PA

12.3%

H 60·K 61

Trea Turner

RHB·3 HR / 121 PA·Brl 4.8%

vs SP: 5-for-16 · .313 · 0 HR · 5 K · 18 PA

12.1%

H 55·K 54

Adolis García

RHB·3 HR / 108 PA·Brl 9.2%

vs SP: 1-for-7 · .143 · 0 HR · 3 K · 8 PA

12.1%

H 67·K 71

Rafael Marchán

SHB·1 HR / 40 PA·Brl 3.8%

vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 1 PA

11.9%

H 56·K 67

Edmundo Sosa

RHB·1 HR / 38 PA·Brl 3.4%

vs SP: 1-for-11 · .091 · 0 HR · 5 K · 12 PA

11.8%

H 62·K 58

Dylan Moore

RHB·0 HR / 11 PA·Brl 0.0%

vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA

11.8%

H 62·K 63

Bryson Stott

LHB·0 HR / 81 PA·Brl 5.1%

vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 4 PA

9.7%

H 61·K 55

Home Lineup

Atlanta Braves

vs Aaron Nola

Michael Harris II

LHB·6 HR / 96 PA·Brl 19.7%

vs SP: 7-for-27 · .259 · 3 HR · 6 K · 29 PA

16.7%

H 73·K 61

Matt Olson

LHB·7 HR / 127 PA·Brl 17.7%

vs SP: 8-for-32 · .250 · 3 HR · 7 K · 39 PA

15.6%

H 71·K 57

Drake Baldwin

LHB·7 HR / 130 PA·Brl 15.9%

vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA

14.2%

H 68·K 67

Austin Riley

RHB·3 HR / 120 PA·Brl 9.0%

vs SP: 22-for-57 · .386 · 6 HR · 19 K · 60 PA

13.5%

H 58·K 61

Dominic Smith

LHB·4 HR / 68 PA·Brl 8.8%

vs SP: 11-for-41 · .268 · 1 HR · 16 K · 42 PA

13.3%

H 69·K 55

Eli White

RHB·1 HR / 34 PA·Brl 4.2%

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA

12.8%

H 63·K 60

Jorge Mateo

RHB·1 HR / 26 PA·Brl 14.3%

12.7%

H 64·K 65

Ozzie Albies

SHB·5 HR / 120 PA·Brl 3.3%

vs SP: 19-for-67 · .284 · 2 HR · 13 K · 72 PA

12.6%

H 71·K 55

Ronald Acuña Jr.

RHB·2 HR / 128 PA·Brl 13.4%

vs SP: 16-for-52 · .308 · 4 HR · 13 K · 59 PA

12.6%

H 59·K 61

Kyle Farmer

RHB·0 HR / 7 PA·Brl 0.0%

vs SP: 1-for-7 · .143 · 0 HR · 2 K · 8 PA

12.2%

H 64·K 65

Jonah Heim

SHB·0 HR / 34 PA·Brl 4.0%

vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA

10.9%

H 66·K 58

Mauricio Dubón

RHB·2 HR / 102 PA·Brl 6.8%

vs SP: 0-for-6 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 6 PA

10.4%

H 60·K 61

A Note on These Numbers

HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.