Matchup · Sunday, April 26, 2026

Pittsburgh Pirates
at Milwaukee Brewers

2:10 PM ET · 11:10 AM PTAmerican Family Field, Milwaukeeretractable roof

The Headline

Oneil Cruz enters this game with a 16.5% model-estimated probability of homering at American Family Field, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.

Park Factors

LHB HR factor106

RHB HR factor103

Probable Starters

Away Starter · RHP

Carmen Mlodzinski

HR VulnerabilityElite

Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression

ERA3.28

WHIP1.42

IP24.2

HR/90.00

K/99.5

xwOBA0.305

Barrel%2.8%

Hard-hit%57.7%

Home Starter · LHP

Kyle Harrison

HR VulnerabilityGood

Contact Quality AllowedAbove average

ERA3.06

WHIP1.30

IP17.2

HR/91.00

K/99.2

xwOBA0.331

Barrel%6.1%

Hard-hit%32.7%

The Lineups

Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.

High

Medium

Low confidence

Away Lineup

Pittsburgh Pirates

vs Kyle Harrison

Oneil Cruz

LHB·8 HR / 122 PA·Brl 23.5%

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 2 PA

16.5%

H 59·K 73

Brandon Lowe

LHB·7 HR / 106 PA·Brl 12.3%

vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA

15.3%

H 61·K 67

Ryan O'Hearn

LHB·4 HR / 105 PA·Brl 8.6%

12.4%

H 70·K 60

Spencer Horwitz

LHB·2 HR / 85 PA·Brl 1.9%

12.4%

H 66·K 54

Marcell Ozuna

RHB·2 HR / 93 PA·Brl 9.8%

vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 3 K · 3 PA

12.3%

H 57·K 68

Joey Bart

RHB·1 HR / 39 PA·Brl 9.5%

12.3%

H 62·K 73

Bryan Reynolds

SHB·3 HR / 120 PA·Brl 9.4%

vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA

11.7%

H 59·K 69

Konnor Griffin

RHB·1 HR / 81 PA·Brl 10.2%

11.3%

H 63·K 73

Nick Yorke

RHB·1 HR / 71 PA·Brl 6.0%

10.9%

H 59·K 59

Henry Davis

RHB·0 HR / 65 PA·Brl 4.8%

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 2 PA

10.4%

H 57·K 56

Jake Mangum

SHB·0 HR / 61 PA·Brl 0.0%

vs SP: 2-for-3 · .667 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA

10.1%

H 70·K 54

Nick Gonzales

RHB·0 HR / 91 PA·Brl 1.5%

9.7%

H 71·K 57

Home Lineup

Milwaukee Brewers

vs Carmen Mlodzinski

Jake Bauers

LHB·5 HR / 91 PA·Brl 9.7%

vs SP: 1-for-1 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA

13.7%

H 61·K 58

Gary Sánchez

RHB·5 HR / 69 PA·Brl 17.9%

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA

13.6%

H 61·K 64

Brice Turang

LHB·4 HR / 112 PA·Brl 9.5%

vs SP: 0-for-6 · .000 · 0 HR · 3 K · 6 PA

vs SP: 1-for-1 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA

11.4%

H 64·K 64

Greg Jones

SHB·0 HR / 16 PA·Brl 0.0%

10.5%

H 63·K 64

William Contreras

RHB·2 HR / 106 PA·Brl 7.7%

vs SP: 3-for-9 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 10 PA

10.3%

H 63·K 54

Garrett Mitchell

LHB·1 HR / 83 PA·Brl 13.3%

10.0%

H 61·K 74

Blake Perkins

SHB·0 HR / 45 PA·Brl 3.7%

vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 4 PA

9.5%

H 62·K 69

David Hamilton

LHB·0 HR / 76 PA·Brl 2.0%

9.4%

H 68·K 60

Sal Frelick

LHB·1 HR / 94 PA·Brl 1.5%

vs SP: 3-for-5 · .600 · 0 HR · 1 K · 7 PA

9.3%

H 62·K 54

Joey Ortiz

RHB·0 HR / 70 PA·Brl 4.4%

vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 5 PA

9.2%

H 62·K 59

Luis Rengifo

SHB·0 HR / 81 PA·Brl 6.5%

vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA

9.1%

H 62·K 54

A Note on These Numbers

HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.