Matchup · Sunday, April 26, 2026

Washington Nationals
at Chicago White Sox

2:10 PM ET · 11:10 AM PTRate Field, Chicagoopen roof

The Headline

Munetaka Murakami enters this game with a 19.0% model-estimated probability of homering at Rate Field, one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.

Park Factors

LHB HR factor108

RHB HR factor111

Probable Starters

Away Starter · LHP

Foster Griffin

HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone

Contact Quality AllowedGetting barreled

ERA3.38

WHIP1.20

IP26.2

HR/91.70

K/97.4

xwOBA0.336

Barrel%12.5%

Hard-hit%40.0%

Home Starter · LHP

Bryan Hudson

HR VulnerabilityElite

Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression

ERA1.54

WHIP1.63

IP11.2

HR/90.00

K/911.6

xwOBA0.317

Barrel%0.0%

Hard-hit%37.9%

The Lineups

Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.

High

Medium

Low confidence

Away Lineup

Washington Nationals

vs Bryan Hudson

James Wood

LHB·10 HR / 137 PA·Brl 30.2%

vs SP: 0-for-0 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA

17.6%

H 64·K 75

CJ Abrams

LHB·7 HR / 114 PA·Brl 13.3%

vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA

14.5%

H 59·K 61

Curtis Mead

RHB·3 HR / 60 PA·Brl 9.8%

vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 1 PA

14.1%

H 63·K 62

Joey Wiemer

RHB·3 HR / 58 PA·Brl 10.7%

13.3%

H 64·K 75

Daylen Lile

LHB·3 HR / 123 PA·Brl 5.5%

vs SP: 1-for-1 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA

12.8%

H 70·K 55

Andrés Chaparro

RHB·0 HR / 10 PA·Brl 25.0%

12.0%

H 64·K 65

Brady House

RHB·3 HR / 107 PA·Brl 10.9%

vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 1 PA

11.5%

H 64·K 75

Jacob Young

RHB·2 HR / 93 PA·Brl 5.6%

11.1%

H 61·K 55

Keibert Ruiz

SHB·1 HR / 53 PA·Brl 4.9%

10.7%

H 63·K 55

Drew Millas

SHB·0 HR / 50 PA·Brl 3.2%

10.5%

H 57·K 64

Luis García Jr.

LHB·1 HR / 92 PA·Brl 5.5%

10.4%

H 70·K 61

José Tena

LHB·0 HR / 49 PA·Brl 0.0%

10.4%

H 63·K 73

Home Lineup

Chicago White Sox

vs Foster Griffin

Munetaka Murakami

LHB·11 HR / 118 PA·Brl 25.5%

19.0%

H 69·K 71

Colson Montgomery

LHB·7 HR / 111 PA·Brl 15.0%

17.8%

H 68·K 67

Miguel Vargas

RHB·5 HR / 116 PA·Brl 13.2%

16.1%

H 68·K 52

Everson Pereira

RHB·3 HR / 61 PA·Brl 14.3%

15.0%

H 64·K 68

Andrew Benintendi

LHB·2 HR / 87 PA·Brl 12.2%

13.8%

H 63·K 71

Derek Hill

RHB·1 HR / 36 PA·Brl 5.6%

13.7%

H 64·K 62

Tanner Murray

RHB·1 HR / 29 PA·Brl 5.3%

13.6%

H 63·K 62

Sam Antonacci

LHB·1 HR / 37 PA·Brl 11.1%

LHB·0 HR / 64 PA·Brl 4.9%

10.8%

H 69·K 62

Luisangel Acuña

RHB·0 HR / 73 PA·Brl 3.5%

10.7%

H 63·K 52

Edgar Quero

SHB·0 HR / 75 PA·Brl 0.0%

10.6%

H 62·K 61

A Note on These Numbers

HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.