Matchup · Tuesday, April 28, 2026

Kansas City Royals
at Athletics

9:40 PM ET · 6:40 PM PTSutter Health Park, Sacramentoopen roof

The Headline

Nick Kurtz enters this game with a 15.5% model-estimated probability of homering at Sutter Health Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.

Park Factors

LHB HR factor100

RHB HR factor102

Probable Starters

Away Starter · LHP

Kris Bubic

HR VulnerabilityGood

Contact Quality AllowedBelow average

ERA4.08

WHIP1.12

IP28.2

HR/90.90

K/99.1

xwOBA0.343

Barrel%11.3%

Hard-hit%39.4%

Home Starter

Starter not yet announced.

The Lineups

Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.

High

Medium

Low confidence

Away Lineup

Kansas City Royals

Carter Jensen

LHB·6 HR / 94 PA·Brl 12.1%

—

Salvador Perez

RHB·4 HR / 113 PA·Brl 9.6%

—

Vinnie Pasquantino

LHB·3 HR / 120 PA·Brl 7.5%

—

Kyle Isbel

LHB·3 HR / 76 PA·Brl 5.8%

—

Isaac Collins

SHB·2 HR / 81 PA·Brl 7.1%

—

Jac Caglianone

LHB·2 HR / 90 PA·Brl 17.0%

—

Maikel Garcia

RHB·2 HR / 112 PA·Brl 8.8%

—

Lane Thomas

RHB·1 HR / 64 PA·Brl 2.4%

—

Michael Massey

LHB·1 HR / 47 PA·Brl 8.8%

—

Bobby Witt Jr.

RHB·1 HR / 125 PA·Brl 11.1%

—

Elias Díaz

RHB·0 HR / 8 PA·Brl 16.7%

—

Starling Marte

RHB·0 HR / 31 PA·Brl 10.0%

—

Home Lineup

Athletics

vs Kris Bubic

Nick Kurtz

LHB·5 HR / 125 PA·Brl 21.8%

15.5%

H 66·K 68

Carlos Cortes

LHB·4 HR / 67 PA·Brl 15.8%

14.8%

H 72·K 54

Shea Langeliers

RHB·8 HR / 122 PA·Brl 12.3%

14.6%

H 68·K 63

Brent Rooker

RHB·2 HR / 54 PA·Brl 17.9%

vs SP: 0-for-5 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 5 PA

12.8%

H 55·K 62

Tyler Soderstrom

LHB·3 HR / 122 PA·Brl 12.9%

12.7%

H 61·K 54

Zack Gelof

RHB·1 HR / 25 PA·Brl 5.6%

vs SP: 0-for-5 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 5 PA

11.9%

H 62·K 54

Colby Thomas

RHB·0 HR / 4 PA·Brl 0.0%

11.8%

H 63·K 55

Darell Hernaiz

RHB·1 HR / 32 PA·Brl 0.0%

11.7%

H 63·K 50

Lawrence Butler

LHB·2 HR / 95 PA·Brl 4.9%

10.9%

H 58·K 58

Jacob Wilson

RHB·2 HR / 117 PA·Brl 1.9%

10.6%

H 69·K 46

A Note on These Numbers

HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.