Matchup · Tuesday, April 28, 2026
St. Louis Cardinals
at Pittsburgh Pirates
6:40 PM ET · 3:40 PM PTPNC Park, Pittsburghopen roof
The Headline
Oneil Cruz enters this game with a 15.5% model-estimated probability of homering at PNC Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor93
RHB HR factor97
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Kyle Leahy
HR VulnerabilityVulnerable
Contact Quality AllowedBelow average
ERA5.63
WHIP1.67
IP24.0
HR/91.50
K/95.6
xwOBA0.371
Barrel%11.0%
Hard-hit%50.0%
Home Starter
Starter not yet announced.
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
St. Louis Cardinals
Jordan Walker
RHB·8 HR / 115 PA·Brl 20.3%
—
JJ Wetherholt
LHB·6 HR / 128 PA·Brl 8.8%
—
Nathan Church
LHB·5 HR / 78 PA·Brl 11.5%
—
Iván Herrera
RHB·4 HR / 128 PA·Brl 10.1%
—
Nolan Gorman
LHB·3 HR / 103 PA·Brl 4.8%
—
Alec Burleson
LHB·3 HR / 120 PA·Brl 10.2%
—
Pedro Pagés
RHB·3 HR / 62 PA·Brl 7.1%
—
Ramón Urías
RHB·2 HR / 59 PA·Brl 10.0%
—
José Fermín
RHB·1 HR / 34 PA·Brl 0.0%
—
Masyn Winn
RHB·1 HR / 99 PA·Brl 3.2%
—
Yohel Pozo
RHB·0 HR / 17 PA·Brl 0.0%
—
Thomas Saggese
RHB·0 HR / 57 PA·Brl 3.0%
—
Home Lineup
Pittsburgh Pirates
vs Kyle Leahy
Oneil Cruz
LHB·8 HR / 122 PA·Brl 23.2%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 2 K · 4 PA
15.5%
H 60·K 69
Brandon Lowe
LHB·7 HR / 110 PA·Brl 11.9%
14.6%
H 60·K 66
Marcell Ozuna
RHB·2 HR / 101 PA·Brl 9.5%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
12.0%
H 57·K 55
Joey Bart
RHB·1 HR / 42 PA·Brl 9.1%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
11.9%
H 60·K 59
Spencer Horwitz
LHB·2 HR / 90 PA·Brl 1.7%
vs SP: 0-for-0 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
11.6%
H 63·K 43
Ryan O'Hearn
LHB·4 HR / 113 PA·Brl 8.0%
vs SP: 1-for-1 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
11.5%
H 68·K 51
Billy Cook
RHB·0 HR / 11 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.4%
H 65·K 51
Konnor Griffin
RHB·1 HR / 88 PA·Brl 9.8%
11.0%
H 65·K 59
Nick Yorke
RHB·1 HR / 74 PA·Brl 5.9%
10.6%
H 60·K 50
Bryan Reynolds
SHB·3 HR / 128 PA·Brl 9.1%
vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 3 K · 4 PA
10.4%
H 58·K 54
Henry Davis
RHB·0 HR / 68 PA·Brl 4.3%
10.0%
H 58·K 46
Jake Mangum
SHB·0 HR / 68 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 1-for-1 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
9.5%
H 65·K 52
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.