Matchup · Tuesday, April 28, 2026
Washington Nationals
at New York Mets
7:10 PM ET · 4:10 PM PTCiti Field, Flushingopen roof
The Headline
James Wood enters this game with a 16.6% model-estimated probability of homering at Citi Field, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor95
RHB HR factor96
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Zack Littell
HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone
Contact Quality AllowedGetting barreled
ERA7.56
WHIP1.68
IP25.0
HR/94.00
K/95.4
xwOBA0.425
Barrel%14.9%
Hard-hit%46.8%
Home Starter · RHP
Clay Holmes
HR VulnerabilityGood
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA2.10
WHIP1.03
IP30.0
HR/90.90
K/95.7
xwOBA0.325
Barrel%5.6%
Hard-hit%42.2%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Washington Nationals
vs Clay Holmes
James Wood
LHB·10 HR / 141 PA·Brl 29.9%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
16.6%
H 64·K 68
CJ Abrams
LHB·7 HR / 118 PA·Brl 12.7%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
13.6%
H 60·K 55
Joey Wiemer
RHB·3 HR / 58 PA·Brl 10.3%
12.4%
H 64·K 68
Curtis Mead
RHB·3 HR / 64 PA·Brl 8.7%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 1 PA
12.4%
H 63·K 46
Daylen Lile
LHB·3 HR / 127 PA·Brl 5.2%
11.8%
H 67·K 44
Andrés Chaparro
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
11.5%
H 64·K 51
José Tena
LHB·1 HR / 50 PA·Brl 3.1%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
10.8%
H 63·K 58
Brady House
RHB·3 HR / 110 PA·Brl 11.9%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
10.5%
H 62·K 58
Jacob Young
RHB·2 HR / 96 PA·Brl 5.3%
vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 0 HR · 1 K · 4 PA
9.8%
H 62·K 45
Keibert Ruiz
SHB·1 HR / 53 PA·Brl 4.5%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
9.5%
H 63·K 42
Drew Millas
SHB·0 HR / 53 PA·Brl 2.9%
9.3%
H 62·K 51
Luis García Jr.
LHB·1 HR / 96 PA·Brl 6.4%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
9.3%
H 64·K 47
Home Lineup
New York Mets
vs Zack Littell
Francisco Alvarez
RHB·4 HR / 89 PA·Brl 15.5%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 1 PA
14.4%
H 64·K 58
MJ Melendez
LHB·1 HR / 24 PA·Brl 27.3%
vs SP: 2-for-3 · .667 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
14.1%
H 66·K 59
Jorge Polanco
SHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
13.9%
H 66·K 59
Francisco Lindor
SHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 0-for-9 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 9 PA
13.9%
H 64·K 49
Hayden Senger
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
13.8%
H 66·K 59
Tyrone Taylor
RHB·2 HR / 45 PA·Brl 5.6%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
13.7%
H 65·K 56
Tommy Pham
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 3-for-13 · .231 · 0 HR · 2 K · 15 PA
13.5%
H 63·K 48
Juan Soto
LHB·1 HR / 55 PA·Brl 13.2%
vs SP: 1-for-6 · .167 · 0 HR · 1 K · 8 PA
13.4%
H 63·K 42
Mark Vientos
RHB·2 HR / 75 PA·Brl 3.7%
13.3%
H 68·K 64
Ronny Mauricio
SHB·0 HR / 14 PA·Brl 0.0%
13.0%
H 66·K 59
Brett Baty
LHB·1 HR / 88 PA·Brl 8.6%
vs SP: 2-for-3 · .667 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
12.9%
H 65·K 58
Carson Benge
LHB·2 HR / 85 PA·Brl 5.1%
12.8%
H 67·K 54
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.