Matchup · Saturday, May 2, 2026
Chicago White Sox
at San Diego Padres
8:40 PM ET · 5:40 PM PTPetco Park, San Diegoopen roof
The Headline
Munetaka Murakami enters this game with a 16.9% model-estimated probability of homering at Petco Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor91
RHB HR factor93
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Sean Burke
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA3.21
WHIP1.04
IP33.2
HR/90.80
K/96.4
xwOBA0.308
Barrel%4.0%
Hard-hit%37.6%
Home Starter · RHP
Michael King
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedBelow average
ERA2.41
WHIP1.04
IP33.2
HR/90.80
K/99.1
xwOBA0.303
Barrel%10.0%
Hard-hit%35.0%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Chicago White Sox
vs Michael King
Munetaka Murakami
LHB·13 HR / 141 PA·Brl 21.5%
16.9%
H 61·K 63
Colson Montgomery
LHB·9 HR / 132 PA·Brl 15.1%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
16.0%
H 62·K 60
Drew Romo
SHB·2 HR / 13 PA·Brl 40.0%
15.4%
H 63·K 55
Miguel Vargas
RHB·6 HR / 139 PA·Brl 12.8%
vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 0 HR · 1 K · 4 PA
14.2%
H 62·K 47
Derek Hill
RHB·1 HR / 43 PA·Brl 4.2%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 1 PA
11.5%
H 63·K 55
Everson Pereira
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
11.3%
H 63·K 55
Andrew Benintendi
LHB·2 HR / 102 PA·Brl 10.5%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 1 PA
11.2%
H 61·K 60
Jarred Kelenic
LHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
11.2%
H 63·K 55
Reese McGuire
LHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 2-for-2 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 4 PA
11.1%
H 63·K 55
Austin Hays
RHB·1 HR / 44 PA·Brl 3.8%
vs SP: 1-for-9 · .111 · 0 HR · 2 K · 12 PA
11.0%
H 65·K 61
Sam Antonacci
LHB·1 HR / 53 PA·Brl 7.9%
10.7%
H 63·K 47
Tristan Peters
LHB·0 HR / 76 PA·Brl 4.1%
8.6%
H 63·K 50
Home Lineup
San Diego Padres
vs Sean Burke
Ty France
RHB·3 HR / 52 PA·Brl 17.1%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
13.5%
H 68·K 43
Luis Campusano
RHB·3 HR / 50 PA·Brl 12.1%
12.8%
H 70·K 51
Xander Bogaerts
RHB·5 HR / 126 PA·Brl 7.6%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.8%
H 63·K 49
Gavin Sheets
LHB·4 HR / 91 PA·Brl 10.6%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.6%
H 64·K 49
Manny Machado
RHB·4 HR / 122 PA·Brl 6.5%
vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 4 PA
12.5%
H 69·K 49
Ramón Laureano
RHB·4 HR / 124 PA·Brl 13.5%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 2 PA
11.3%
H 60·K 60
Jackson Merrill
LHB·3 HR / 128 PA·Brl 10.5%
vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 0 HR · 2 K · 4 PA
10.6%
H 57·K 59
Nick Castellanos
RHB·1 HR / 63 PA·Brl 7.9%
10.5%
H 57·K 56
Miguel Andujar
RHB·1 HR / 75 PA·Brl 3.7%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
10.0%
H 68·K 45
Bryce Johnson
SHB·0 HR / 26 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.0%
H 63·K 52
Fernando Tatis Jr.
RHB·0 HR / 135 PA·Brl 14.1%
vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 1 HR · 1 K · 5 PA
9.0%
H 65·K 53
Freddy Fermin
RHB·0 HR / 62 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
9.0%
H 58·K 48
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.