Matchup · Saturday, May 2, 2026
Milwaukee Brewers
at Washington Nationals
4:05 PM ET · 1:05 PM PTNationals Park, Washingtonopen roof
The Headline
James Wood enters this game with a 17.2% model-estimated probability of homering at Nationals Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor102
RHB HR factor101
Probable Starters
Away Starter · LHP
Kyle Harrison
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA2.28
WHIP1.06
IP23.2
HR/90.80
K/911.4
xwOBA0.295
Barrel%5.5%
Hard-hit%32.7%
Home Starter · LHP
Foster Griffin
HR VulnerabilityAverage
Contact Quality AllowedGetting barreled
ERA2.67
WHIP1.07
IP33.2
HR/91.30
K/98.0
xwOBA0.335
Barrel%12.6%
Hard-hit%37.9%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Milwaukee Brewers
Gary Sánchez
RHB·5 HR / 79 PA·Brl 15.6%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
14.6%
H 60·K 45
Jake Bauers
LHB·5 HR / 114 PA·Brl 10.3%
13.3%
H 65·K 54
Luis Matos
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
12.6%
H 64·K 54
Sal Frelick
LHB·3 HR / 114 PA·Brl 3.8%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.5%
H 62·K 45
Brice Turang
LHB·4 HR / 134 PA·Brl 11.7%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
12.3%
H 71·K 51
William Contreras
RHB·3 HR / 129 PA·Brl 8.2%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
11.5%
H 71·K 45
Tyler Black
LHB·0 HR / 22 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.2%
H 70·K 54
Greg Jones
SHB·0 HR / 22 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.0%
H 62·K 54
Garrett Mitchell
LHB·1 HR / 105 PA·Brl 14.0%
10.5%
H 62·K 62
Blake Perkins
SHB·0 HR / 53 PA·Brl 3.3%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
10.1%
H 61·K 58
Joey Ortiz
RHB·0 HR / 76 PA·Brl 3.8%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
10.0%
H 62·K 51
David Hamilton
LHB·0 HR / 96 PA·Brl 3.2%
9.7%
H 67·K 54
Home Lineup
Washington Nationals
James Wood
LHB·10 HR / 159 PA·Brl 29.2%
vs SP: 3-for-6 · .500 · 1 HR · 0 K · 7 PA
17.2%
H 58·K 65
CJ Abrams
LHB·8 HR / 135 PA·Brl 12.6%
vs SP: 3-for-9 · .333 · 1 HR · 4 K · 10 PA
13.8%
H 69·K 57
Curtis Mead
RHB·4 HR / 75 PA·Brl 9.6%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
13.7%
H 62·K 53
Joey Wiemer
RHB·3 HR / 64 PA·Brl 12.5%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
12.9%
H 63·K 65
Brady House
RHB·4 HR / 123 PA·Brl 12.3%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.2%
H 57·K 65
Andrés Chaparro
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
11.9%
H 63·K 57
Daylen Lile
LHB·3 HR / 144 PA·Brl 4.9%
vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 4 PA
11.8%
H 58·K 58
José Tena
LHB·1 HR / 56 PA·Brl 2.9%
11.3%
H 62·K 64
Keibert Ruiz
SHB·1 HR / 59 PA·Brl 4.2%
vs SP: 3-for-6 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 6 PA
9.8%
H 56·K 53
Luis García Jr.
LHB·1 HR / 108 PA·Brl 6.0%
vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 0 HR · 0 K · 4 PA
9.7%
H 59·K 55
Drew Millas
SHB·0 HR / 61 PA·Brl 2.7%
9.4%
H 61·K 63
Jacob Young
RHB·2 HR / 111 PA·Brl 4.8%
vs SP: 3-for-5 · .600 · 0 HR · 0 K · 6 PA
9.3%
H 62·K 56
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.