Matchup · Monday, May 4, 2026

Boston Red Sox
at Detroit Tigers

6:40 PM ET · 3:40 PM PTComerica Park, Detroitopen roof

The Headline

Spencer Torkelson enters this game with a 16.6% model-estimated probability of homering at Comerica Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.

Park Factors

LHB HR factor92

RHB HR factor94

Probable Starters

Away Starter · LHP

Payton Tolle

HR VulnerabilityElite

Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression

ERA3.38

WHIP1.03

IP10.2

HR/90.80

K/912.7

xwOBA0.214

Barrel%4.5%

Hard-hit%50.0%

Home Starter · LHP

Tarik Skubal

HR VulnerabilityElite

Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression

ERA2.70

WHIP0.95

IP43.1

HR/90.40

K/99.4

xwOBA0.284

Barrel%5.3%

Hard-hit%43.0%

The Lineups

Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.

High

Medium

Low confidence

Away Lineup

Boston Red Sox

vs Tarik Skubal

Willson Contreras

RHB·7 HR / 142 PA·Brl 17.9%

vs SP: 2-for-9 · .222 · 0 HR · 4 K · 9 PA

14.0%

H 65·K 61

Carlos Narváez

RHB·2 HR / 74 PA·Brl 8.5%

vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA

LHB·4 HR / 140 PA·Brl 11.1%

vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA

10.3%

H 65·K 47

Jarren Duran

LHB·3 HR / 122 PA·Brl 11.4%

vs SP: 2-for-9 · .222 · 0 HR · 2 K · 9 PA

10.2%

H 58·K 55

Andruw Monasterio

RHB·1 HR / 51 PA·Brl 8.3%

vs SP: 1-for-6 · .167 · 0 HR · 1 K · 6 PA

9.9%

H 61·K 49

Trevor Story

RHB·2 HR / 139 PA·Brl 3.3%

vs SP: 2-for-11 · .182 · 0 HR · 5 K · 11 PA

8.9%

H 60·K 59

Marcelo Mayer

LHB·1 HR / 97 PA·Brl 8.8%

8.8%

H 66·K 47

Caleb Durbin

RHB·1 HR / 122 PA·Brl 1.1%

vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA

8.6%

H 55·K 47

Roman Anthony

LHB·1 HR / 129 PA·Brl 8.6%

vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA

8.6%

H 64·K 56

Isiah Kiner-Falefa

RHB·0 HR / 38 PA·Brl 3.6%

vs SP: 1-for-8 · .125 · 0 HR · 0 K · 8 PA

8.5%

H 61·K 50

Connor Wong

RHB·0 HR / 47 PA·Brl 2.9%

vs SP: 2-for-7 · .286 · 0 HR · 1 K · 7 PA

8.4%

H 56·K 48

Home Lineup

Detroit Tigers

vs Payton Tolle

Spencer Torkelson

RHB·6 HR / 132 PA·Brl 15.3%

vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 1 PA

16.6%

H 60·K 64

Kerry Carpenter

LHB·6 HR / 109 PA·Brl 12.3%

14.1%

H 61·K 62

Dillon Dingler

RHB·6 HR / 114 PA·Brl 17.1%

14.1%

H 68·K 49

Jahmai Jones

RHB·2 HR / 39 PA·Brl 20.0%

13.8%

H 63·K 63

Riley Greene

LHB·4 HR / 145 PA·Brl 14.3%

vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA

13.0%

H 65·K 64

Hao-Yu Lee

RHB·1 HR / 36 PA·Brl 15.0%

SHB·2 HR / 61 PA·Brl 10.6%

vs SP: 1-for-1 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA

LHB·2 HR / 150 PA·Brl 13.1%

10.5%

H 63·K 48

Jake Rogers

RHB·0 HR / 37 PA·Brl 13.6%

10.0%

H 59·K 62

A Note on These Numbers

HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.