Matchup · Tuesday, May 5, 2026
Athletics
at Philadelphia Phillies
6:40 PM ET · 3:40 PM PTCitizens Bank Park, Philadelphiaopen roof
The Headline
Kyle Schwarber enters this game with a 18.9% model-estimated probability of homering at Citizens Bank Park, one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor113
RHB HR factor109
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Luis Severino
HR VulnerabilityGood
Contact Quality AllowedLeague average
ERA4.46
WHIP1.43
IP38.1
HR/90.90
K/99.4
xwOBA0.327
Barrel%9.3%
Hard-hit%42.3%
Home Starter · LHP
Cristopher Sánchez
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedBelow average
ERA2.90
WHIP1.51
IP40.1
HR/90.70
K/911.2
xwOBA0.293
Barrel%11.1%
Hard-hit%44.4%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Athletics
Nick Kurtz
LHB·5 HR / 153 PA·Brl 18.8%
vs SP: 1-for-1 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
14.9%
H 63·K 61
Carlos Cortes
LHB·4 HR / 84 PA·Brl 13.2%
14.6%
H 67·K 49
Brent Rooker
RHB·3 HR / 77 PA·Brl 13.3%
vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 5 PA
13.7%
H 60·K 62
Tyler Soderstrom
LHB·4 HR / 138 PA·Brl 13.7%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
13.1%
H 64·K 54
Colby Thomas
RHB·1 HR / 18 PA·Brl 9.1%
13.1%
H 63·K 58
Zack Gelof
RHB·2 HR / 44 PA·Brl 6.3%
12.3%
H 63·K 59
Shea Langeliers
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 2-for-4 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 4 PA
12.2%
H 63·K 58
Brett Harris
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
12.1%
H 63·K 58
Denzel Clarke
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 2 PA
12.0%
H 63·K 58
Max Muncy
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
12.0%
H 63·K 58
Lawrence Butler
LHB·3 HR / 112 PA·Brl 7.1%
11.7%
H 62·K 60
Jonah Heim
SHB·1 HR / 45 PA·Brl 5.7%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 2 K · 3 PA
11.3%
H 63·K 49
Home Lineup
Philadelphia Phillies
Kyle Schwarber
LHB·11 HR / 156 PA·Brl 20.0%
vs SP: 3-for-9 · .333 · 0 HR · 3 K · 9 PA
18.9%
H 64·K 58
Bryce Harper
LHB·7 HR / 149 PA·Brl 13.9%
vs SP: 2-for-5 · .400 · 2 HR · 1 K · 6 PA
15.3%
H 66·K 50
Brandon Marsh
LHB·4 HR / 118 PA·Brl 6.0%
vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 0 HR · 1 K · 4 PA
13.2%
H 70·K 52
Otto Kemp
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
12.6%
H 63·K 56
Felix Reyes
RHB·1 HR / 28 PA·Brl 4.8%
12.4%
H 57·K 56
Dylan Moore
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
12.3%
H 63·K 56
Bryson Stott
LHB·2 HR / 110 PA·Brl 5.0%
vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 0 HR · 1 K · 5 PA
12.3%
H 57·K 54
Trea Turner
RHB·4 HR / 152 PA·Brl 5.6%
vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 1 HR · 2 K · 6 PA
11.8%
H 58·K 54
Edmundo Sosa
RHB·1 HR / 49 PA·Brl 5.3%
11.7%
H 64·K 51
Adolis García
RHB·3 HR / 137 PA·Brl 9.3%
vs SP: 4-for-7 · .571 · 0 HR · 1 K · 8 PA
11.6%
H 66·K 58
Garrett Stubbs
LHB·0 HR / 17 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.4%
H 64·K 56
J.T. Realmuto
RHB·1 HR / 68 PA·Brl 2.0%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 4 PA
11.3%
H 60·K 47
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.