Matchup · Friday, April 17, 2026
Atlanta Braves
at Philadelphia Phillies
6:40 PM ET · 3:40 PM PTCitizens Bank Park, Philadelphiaopen roof
Probable Starters
Away Starter · LHP
Martín Pérez
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA2.21
WHIP0.93
IP20.1
HR/90.40
K/94.4
xwOBA0.312
Barrel%2.3%
Hard-hit%30.2%
Home Starter · RHP
Taijuan Walker
HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone
Contact Quality AllowedAbove average
ERA9.16
WHIP2.04
IP18.2
HR/92.90
K/97.7
xwOBA0.394
Barrel%7.7%
Hard-hit%30.8%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Atlanta Braves
Drake Baldwin
LHB·5 HR / 91 PA·Brl 15.9%
vs SP: 0-for-0 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
—
Matt Olson
LHB·5 HR / 89 PA·Brl 21.6%
vs SP: 3-for-13 · .231 · 0 HR · 2 K · 18 PA
—
Dominic Smith
LHB·4 HR / 50 PA·Brl 8.1%
vs SP: 2-for-3 · .667 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
—
Ozzie Albies
SHB·4 HR / 85 PA·Brl 3.3%
vs SP: 3-for-13 · .231 · 0 HR · 4 K · 16 PA
—
Michael Harris II
LHB·3 HR / 69 PA·Brl 14.9%
vs SP: 4-for-9 · .444 · 2 HR · 2 K · 10 PA
—
Austin Riley
RHB·3 HR / 84 PA·Brl 8.9%
vs SP: 5-for-15 · .333 · 1 HR · 3 K · 17 PA
—
Mauricio Dubón
RHB·2 HR / 74 PA·Brl 7.3%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
—
Jorge Mateo
RHB·1 HR / 17 PA·Brl 18.2%
—
Ronald Acuña Jr.
RHB·1 HR / 90 PA·Brl 15.8%
vs SP: 3-for-12 · .250 · 0 HR · 2 K · 14 PA
—
Mike Yastrzemski
LHB·0 HR / 71 PA·Brl 2.4%
vs SP: 3-for-14 · .214 · 0 HR · 4 K · 17 PA
—
Eli White
RHB·0 HR / 17 PA·Brl 0.0%
—
Jonah Heim
SHB·0 HR / 22 PA·Brl 6.3%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
—
Home Lineup
Philadelphia Phillies
vs Martín Pérez
Kyle Schwarber
LHB·6 HR / 84 PA·Brl 26.5%
vs SP: 2-for-11 · .182 · 0 HR · 4 K · 12 PA
—
Bryce Harper
LHB·4 HR / 80 PA·Brl 16.4%
vs SP: 5-for-19 · .263 · 0 HR · 4 K · 21 PA
—
Adolis García
RHB·2 HR / 77 PA·Brl 13.0%
vs SP: 2-for-4 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 7 PA
—
Trea Turner
RHB·2 HR / 83 PA·Brl 3.6%
vs SP: 5-for-14 · .357 · 1 HR · 0 K · 15 PA
—
Brandon Marsh
LHB·2 HR / 66 PA·Brl 6.3%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
—
Alec Bohm
RHB·1 HR / 73 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 8-for-17 · .471 · 1 HR · 4 K · 18 PA
—
Edmundo Sosa
RHB·1 HR / 27 PA·Brl 5.9%
vs SP: 2-for-5 · .400 · 0 HR · 1 K · 5 PA
—
J.T. Realmuto
RHB·1 HR / 55 PA·Brl 3.0%
vs SP: 5-for-18 · .278 · 0 HR · 1 K · 19 PA
—
Rafael Marchán
SHB·1 HR / 22 PA·Brl 5.6%
—
Bryson Stott
LHB·0 HR / 59 PA·Brl 6.8%
vs SP: 2-for-2 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
—
Dylan Moore
RHB·0 HR / 9 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 2-for-11 · .182 · 0 HR · 4 K · 17 PA
—
Justin Crawford
LHB·0 HR / 61 PA·Brl 2.5%
—
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.