Matchup · Friday, April 17, 2026
Chicago White Sox
at Athletics
9:40 PM ET · 6:40 PM PTSutter Health Park, Sacramentoopen roof
The Headline
Shea Langeliers enters this game with a 15.8% model-estimated probability of homering at Sutter Health Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor100
RHB HR factor102
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Davis Martin
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedAbove average
ERA2.11
WHIP0.98
IP21.1
HR/90.80
K/97.2
xwOBA0.353
Barrel%6.0%
Hard-hit%54.0%
Home Starter · RHP
Aaron Civale
HR VulnerabilityGood
Contact Quality AllowedAbove average
ERA2.75
WHIP1.27
IP19.2
HR/90.90
K/97.3
xwOBA0.308
Barrel%6.8%
Hard-hit%52.3%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Chicago White Sox
vs Aaron Civale
Munetaka Murakami
LHB·5 HR / 81 PA·Brl 22.9%
15.6%
Everson Pereira
RHB·3 HR / 28 PA·Brl 28.6%
15.4%
Colson Montgomery
LHB·3 HR / 76 PA·Brl 10.0%
vs SP: 2-for-2 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
13.7%
Miguel Vargas
RHB·2 HR / 79 PA·Brl 12.0%
vs SP: 1-for-1 · 1.000 · 1 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.5%
Andrew Benintendi
LHB·0 HR / 56 PA·Brl 11.1%
vs SP: 5-for-13 · .385 · 2 HR · 2 K · 16 PA
11.7%
Sam Antonacci
LHB·0 HR / 10 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.2%
Edgar Quero
SHB·0 HR / 53 PA·Brl 0.0%
9.5%
Chase Meidroth
RHB·1 HR / 75 PA·Brl 4.2%
9.2%
Luisangel Acuña
RHB·0 HR / 60 PA·Brl 2.1%
8.8%
Tanner Murray
RHB·1 HR / 21 PA·Brl 6.3%
—
Derek Hill
RHB·0 HR / 25 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
—
Tristan Peters
LHB·0 HR / 45 PA·Brl 3.6%
—
Home Lineup
Athletics
vs Davis Martin
Shea Langeliers
RHB·6 HR / 81 PA·Brl 12.5%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
15.8%
Tyler Soderstrom
LHB·2 HR / 82 PA·Brl 11.3%
vs SP: 0-for-5 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 5 PA
12.9%
Nick Kurtz
LHB·1 HR / 83 PA·Brl 18.2%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.4%
Carlos Cortes
LHB·1 HR / 37 PA·Brl 10.3%
11.9%
Lawrence Butler
LHB·2 HR / 66 PA·Brl 4.7%
vs SP: 2-for-8 · .250 · 1 HR · 1 K · 8 PA
11.6%
Max Muncy
RHB·2 HR / 72 PA·Brl 12.8%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
11.6%
Jeff McNeil
LHB·0 HR / 67 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
10.6%
Jacob Wilson
RHB·1 HR / 78 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 0 HR · 0 K · 5 PA
10.4%
Denzel Clarke
RHB·0 HR / 53 PA·Brl 3.4%
9.4%
Darell Hernaiz
RHB·0 HR / 21 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
—
Andy Ibáñez
RHB·0 HR / 14 PA·Brl 0.0%
—
Austin Wynns
RHB·0 HR / 18 PA·Brl 13.3%
—
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.