Matchup · Friday, April 17, 2026
St. Louis Cardinals
at Houston Astros
8:10 PM ET · 5:10 PM PTDaikin Park, Houstonretractable roof
The Headline
Yordan Alvarez enters this game with a 18.7% model-estimated probability of homering at Daikin Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor101
RHB HR factor106
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Kyle Leahy
HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone
Contact Quality AllowedGetting barreled
ERA5.21
WHIP1.53
IP19.0
HR/91.90
K/96.2
xwOBA0.431
Barrel%16.7%
Hard-hit%54.2%
Home Starter · RHP
Peter Lambert
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality Allowed—
ERA7.20
WHIP1.60
IP5.0
HR/90.00
K/914.4
xwOBA—
Barrel%undefined%
Hard-hit%undefined%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
St. Louis Cardinals
Jordan Walker
RHB·8 HR / 80 PA·Brl 22.9%
17.3%
JJ Wetherholt
LHB·3 HR / 87 PA·Brl 7.4%
13.3%
Iván Herrera
RHB·2 HR / 88 PA·Brl 5.7%
13.3%
Nolan Gorman
LHB·3 HR / 67 PA·Brl 5.6%
12.7%
Alec Burleson
LHB·2 HR / 85 PA·Brl 11.5%
12.1%
Pedro Pagés
RHB·1 HR / 43 PA·Brl 3.6%
11.2%
Nathan Church
LHB·1 HR / 46 PA·Brl 6.9%
10.9%
Masyn Winn
RHB·0 HR / 64 PA·Brl 2.7%
9.7%
Victor Scott II
LHB·0 HR / 60 PA·Brl 0.0%
8.8%
Ramón Urías
RHB·2 HR / 38 PA·Brl 16.0%
—
Yohel Pozo
RHB·0 HR / 15 PA·Brl 0.0%
—
José Fermín
RHB·0 HR / 17 PA·Brl 0.0%
—
Home Lineup
Houston Astros
vs Kyle Leahy
Yordan Alvarez
LHB·8 HR / 93 PA·Brl 20.7%
vs SP: 2-for-2 · 1.000 · 1 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
18.7%
Christian Walker
RHB·4 HR / 84 PA·Brl 14.0%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
16.4%
Cam Smith
RHB·3 HR / 84 PA·Brl 19.2%
13.6%
Jose Altuve
RHB·3 HR / 88 PA·Brl 7.4%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 2 PA
13.6%
Christian Vázquez
RHB·2 HR / 33 PA·Brl 4.5%
13.2%
Carlos Correa
RHB·1 HR / 77 PA·Brl 9.3%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 1 PA
12.5%
Taylor Trammell
LHB·0 HR / 23 PA·Brl 10.0%
11.2%
Nick Allen
RHB·0 HR / 22 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
10.5%
Joey Loperfido
LHB·0 HR / 66 PA·Brl 5.3%
10.5%
Yainer Diaz
RHB·1 HR / 63 PA·Brl 2.0%
—
Brice Matthews
RHB·1 HR / 31 PA·Brl 8.3%
—
Isaac Paredes
RHB·0 HR / 66 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
—
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.