Matchup · Monday, April 20, 2026
Philadelphia Phillies
at Chicago Cubs
7:40 PM ET · 4:40 PM PTWrigley Field, Chicagoopen roof
The Headline
Kyle Schwarber enters this game with a 15.8% model-estimated probability of homering at Wrigley Field, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor104
RHB HR factor103
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Aaron Nola
HR VulnerabilityAverage
Contact Quality AllowedAbove average
ERA4.03
WHIP1.30
IP22.1
HR/91.20
K/99.7
xwOBA0.323
Barrel%7.9%
Hard-hit%39.7%
Home Starter · RHP
Colin Rea
HR VulnerabilityGood
Contact Quality AllowedAbove average
ERA3.63
WHIP0.98
IP17.1
HR/91.00
K/97.8
xwOBA0.305
Barrel%6.0%
Hard-hit%40.0%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Philadelphia Phillies
vs Colin Rea
Kyle Schwarber
LHB·6 HR / 88 PA·Brl 25.6%
vs SP: 3-for-13 · .231 · 1 HR · 6 K · 15 PA
15.8%
Bryce Harper
LHB·4 HR / 84 PA·Brl 15.0%
vs SP: 0-for-14 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 14 PA
14.9%
Brandon Marsh
LHB·2 HR / 68 PA·Brl 6.1%
vs SP: 6-for-9 · .667 · 0 HR · 0 K · 9 PA
12.6%
Otto Kemp
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
12.4%
Rafael Marchán
SHB·1 HR / 24 PA·Brl 5.3%
12.4%
Edmundo Sosa
RHB·1 HR / 30 PA·Brl 4.5%
vs SP: 2-for-6 · .333 · 1 HR · 1 K · 6 PA
12.3%
Adolis García
RHB·2 HR / 81 PA·Brl 12.0%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
11.9%
Trea Turner
RHB·2 HR / 87 PA·Brl 3.1%
vs SP: 4-for-17 · .235 · 0 HR · 4 K · 17 PA
11.8%
Dylan Moore
RHB·0 HR / 10 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
11.7%
J.T. Realmuto
RHB·1 HR / 57 PA·Brl 2.6%
vs SP: 7-for-14 · .500 · 1 HR · 2 K · 16 PA
11.6%
Bryson Stott
LHB·0 HR / 59 PA·Brl 6.8%
vs SP: 1-for-14 · .071 · 0 HR · 4 K · 15 PA
10.2%
Alec Bohm
RHB·1 HR / 76 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 1-for-11 · .091 · 0 HR · 3 K · 11 PA
10.2%
Home Lineup
Chicago Cubs
vs Aaron Nola
Ian Happ
SHB·6 HR / 84 PA·Brl 20.0%
vs SP: 2-for-21 · .095 · 0 HR · 8 K · 22 PA
15.3%
Dansby Swanson
RHB·4 HR / 82 PA·Brl 14.9%
vs SP: 14-for-64 · .219 · 3 HR · 13 K · 70 PA
14.8%
Moisés Ballesteros
LHB·3 HR / 46 PA·Brl 15.2%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
14.7%
Carson Kelly
RHB·2 HR / 60 PA·Brl 14.3%
vs SP: 4-for-6 · .667 · 0 HR · 0 K · 6 PA
13.1%
Matt Shaw
RHB·2 HR / 57 PA·Brl 9.3%
12.9%
Nico Hoerner
RHB·3 HR / 92 PA·Brl 4.2%
vs SP: 5-for-17 · .294 · 0 HR · 3 K · 18 PA
12.5%
Miguel Amaya
RHB·1 HR / 40 PA·Brl 4.2%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
12.0%
Seiya Suzuki
RHB·0 HR / 37 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 1-for-12 · .083 · 0 HR · 7 K · 12 PA
11.5%
Michael Conforto
LHB·0 HR / 28 PA·Brl 8.3%
vs SP: 10-for-53 · .189 · 2 HR · 19 K · 58 PA
11.4%
Pete Crow-Armstrong
LHB·1 HR / 84 PA·Brl 3.6%
vs SP: 2-for-6 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 7 PA
11.4%
Alex Bregman
RHB·2 HR / 93 PA·Brl 5.8%
vs SP: 2-for-11 · .182 · 0 HR · 3 K · 11 PA
10.6%
Michael Busch
LHB·0 HR / 80 PA·Brl 3.7%
vs SP: 2-for-7 · .286 · 0 HR · 3 K · 9 PA
10.5%
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.