Matchup · Tuesday, April 21, 2026
Philadelphia Phillies
at Chicago Cubs
7:40 PM ET · 4:40 PM PTWrigley Field, Chicagoopen roof
The Headline
Kyle Schwarber enters this game with a 15.8% model-estimated probability of homering at Wrigley Field, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor104
RHB HR factor103
Probable Starters
Away Starter · LHP
Jesús Luzardo
HR VulnerabilityAverage
Contact Quality AllowedAbove average
ERA7.94
WHIP1.46
IP22.2
HR/91.20
K/911.9
xwOBA0.304
Barrel%6.3%
Hard-hit%31.7%
Home Starter · LHP
Shota Imanaga
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedBelow average
ERA2.45
WHIP0.77
IP22.0
HR/90.80
K/912.7
xwOBA0.258
Barrel%10.9%
Hard-hit%50.0%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Philadelphia Phillies
Kyle Schwarber
LHB·7 HR / 98 PA·Brl 25.6%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 3 K · 3 PA
15.8%
Bryce Harper
LHB·4 HR / 92 PA·Brl 14.3%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 3 PA
13.3%
Brandon Marsh
LHB·2 HR / 76 PA·Brl 5.8%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
12.3%
Otto Kemp
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
12.2%
Edmundo Sosa
RHB·1 HR / 30 PA·Brl 4.5%
vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 0 HR · 3 K · 5 PA
12.0%
Rafael Marchán
SHB·1 HR / 32 PA·Brl 4.8%
vs SP: 2-for-2 · 1.000 · 1 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
11.9%
Trea Turner
RHB·2 HR / 97 PA·Brl 2.9%
vs SP: 2-for-5 · .400 · 1 HR · 3 K · 6 PA
11.6%
Dylan Moore
RHB·0 HR / 10 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
11.6%
Adolis García
RHB·2 HR / 89 PA·Brl 12.0%
vs SP: 3-for-6 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 6 PA
11.5%
J.T. Realmuto
RHB·1 HR / 57 PA·Brl 2.6%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
11.4%
Alec Bohm
RHB·1 HR / 84 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 1 HR · 0 K · 5 PA
10.0%
Bryson Stott
LHB·0 HR / 67 PA·Brl 6.3%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
9.9%
Home Lineup
Chicago Cubs
Moisés Ballesteros
LHB·3 HR / 50 PA·Brl 14.3%
14.6%
Dansby Swanson
RHB·5 HR / 90 PA·Brl 14.0%
vs SP: 5-for-19 · .263 · 0 HR · 4 K · 25 PA
14.4%
Ian Happ
SHB·6 HR / 92 PA·Brl 18.8%
vs SP: 2-for-16 · .125 · 0 HR · 7 K · 21 PA
13.8%
Carson Kelly
RHB·2 HR / 64 PA·Brl 14.0%
vs SP: 3-for-6 · .500 · 1 HR · 1 K · 7 PA
12.9%
Matt Shaw
RHB·2 HR / 60 PA·Brl 9.1%
vs SP: 3-for-5 · .600 · 0 HR · 1 K · 5 PA
12.7%
Nico Hoerner
RHB·3 HR / 101 PA·Brl 3.9%
vs SP: 5-for-17 · .294 · 1 HR · 3 K · 17 PA
12.3%
Miguel Amaya
RHB·1 HR / 44 PA·Brl 4.2%
vs SP: 1-for-7 · .143 · 0 HR · 3 K · 7 PA
11.6%
Pete Crow-Armstrong
LHB·1 HR / 92 PA·Brl 5.3%
vs SP: 2-for-6 · .333 · 0 HR · 2 K · 6 PA
11.1%
Michael Conforto
LHB·0 HR / 31 PA·Brl 7.7%
vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 5 PA
11.0%
Seiya Suzuki
RHB·0 HR / 43 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 3-for-15 · .200 · 0 HR · 5 K · 15 PA
10.7%
Alex Bregman
RHB·2 HR / 101 PA·Brl 5.6%
vs SP: 3-for-11 · .273 · 2 HR · 3 K · 13 PA
10.4%
Michael Busch
LHB·0 HR / 88 PA·Brl 3.5%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
10.2%
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.