Matchup · Wednesday, April 22, 2026

Atlanta Braves
at Washington Nationals

6:45 PM ET · 3:45 PM PTNationals Park, Washingtonopen roof

The Headline

James Wood enters this game with a 16.4% model-estimated probability of homering at Nationals Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.

Park Factors

LHB HR factor102

RHB HR factor101

Probable Starters

Away Starter · LHP

Martín Pérez

HR VulnerabilityElite

Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression

ERA2.21

WHIP0.93

IP20.1

HR/90.40

K/94.4

xwOBA0.324

Barrel%3.3%

Hard-hit%39.3%

Home Starter · RHP

Zack Littell

HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone

Contact Quality AllowedGetting barreled

ERA7.11

WHIP1.74

IP19.0

HR/93.30

K/96.6

xwOBA0.415

Barrel%14.5%

Hard-hit%52.2%

The Lineups

Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.

High

Medium

Low confidence

Away Lineup

Atlanta Braves

vs Zack Littell

Matt Olson

LHB·6 HR / 108 PA·Brl 20.3%

vs SP: 2-for-10 · .200 · 0 HR · 2 K · 11 PA

16.1%

H 59·K 60

Michael Harris II

LHB·4 HR / 82 PA·Brl 15.5%

vs SP: 2-for-4 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 5 PA

15.3%

H 72·K 57

Dominic Smith

LHB·4 HR / 58 PA·Brl 10.2%

vs SP: 2-for-7 · .286 · 0 HR · 0 K · 7 PA

15.2%

H 70·K 50

Drake Baldwin

LHB·6 HR / 111 PA·Brl 15.4%

14.8%

H 71·K 61

Austin Riley

RHB·3 HR / 103 PA·Brl 10.4%

vs SP: 3-for-7 · .429 · 1 HR · 2 K · 7 PA

14.7%

H 68·K 60

Jorge Mateo

RHB·1 HR / 24 PA·Brl 14.3%

vs SP: 1-for-1 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA

13.5%

H 65·K 61

Ozzie Albies

SHB·4 HR / 102 PA·Brl 2.6%

vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 0 HR · 1 K · 5 PA

13.1%

H 64·K 53

Kyle Farmer

RHB·0 HR / 7 PA·Brl 0.0%

vs SP: 1-for-9 · .111 · 0 HR · 1 K · 9 PA

12.6%

H 64·K 59

Ronald Acuña Jr.

RHB·1 HR / 108 PA·Brl 14.9%

vs SP: 2-for-6 · .333 · 1 HR · 1 K · 6 PA

12.5%

H 67·K 58

Eli White

RHB·1 HR / 26 PA·Brl 0.0%

12.3%

H 64·K 61

Mauricio Dubón

RHB·2 HR / 86 PA·Brl 6.5%

vs SP: 2-for-7 · .286 · 0 HR · 0 K · 8 PA

11.8%

H 64·K 54

Jonah Heim

SHB·0 HR / 30 PA·Brl 5.6%

vs SP: 3-for-4 · .750 · 0 HR · 0 K · 4 PA

11.7%

H 66·K 56

Home Lineup

Washington Nationals

vs Martín Pérez

James Wood

LHB·8 HR / 118 PA·Brl 28.1%

16.4%

H 60·K 63

CJ Abrams

LHB·6 HR / 100 PA·Brl 13.8%

vs SP: 2-for-4 · .500 · 1 HR · 2 K · 4 PA

14.1%

H 61·K 49

Curtis Mead

RHB·3 HR / 51 PA·Brl 7.7%

12.4%

H 59·K 49

Joey Wiemer

RHB·2 HR / 50 PA·Brl 7.7%

vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA

11.4%

H 64·K 67

Daylen Lile

LHB·2 HR / 106 PA·Brl 5.1%

11.3%

H 68·K 54

Keibert Ruiz

SHB·1 HR / 44 PA·Brl 5.4%

11.2%

H 63·K 49

Luis García Jr.

LHB·1 HR / 81 PA·Brl 6.7%

11.1%

H 66·K 54

Brady House

RHB·2 HR / 93 PA·Brl 10.3%

11.0%

H 63·K 65

Jacob Young

RHB·2 HR / 76 PA·Brl 5.4%

vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA

10.9%

H 63·K 52

José Tena

LHB·0 HR / 42 PA·Brl 0.0%

10.3%

H 64·K 62

Drew Millas

SHB·0 HR / 46 PA·Brl 3.7%

10.1%

H 63·K 65

Jorbit Vivas

LHB·0 HR / 56 PA·Brl 0.0%

10.0%

H 65·K 49

A Note on These Numbers

HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.