Matchup · Wednesday, April 22, 2026
Baltimore Orioles
at Kansas City Royals
2:10 PM ET · 11:10 AM PTKauffman Stadium, Kansas Cityopen roof
The Headline
Carter Jensen enters this game with a 14.8% model-estimated probability of homering at Kauffman Stadium, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor97
RHB HR factor98
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Chris Bassitt
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA6.19
WHIP2.13
IP16.0
HR/90.60
K/93.9
xwOBA0.371
Barrel%1.6%
Hard-hit%30.6%
Home Starter · RHP
Michael Wacha
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedAbove average
ERA1.00
WHIP0.78
IP27.0
HR/90.70
K/97.7
xwOBA0.298
Barrel%7.6%
Hard-hit%47.0%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Baltimore Orioles
Jeremiah Jackson
RHB·5 HR / 78 PA·Brl 11.1%
14.5%
H 62·K 62
Gunnar Henderson
LHB·7 HR / 114 PA·Brl 10.8%
vs SP: 2-for-17 · .118 · 0 HR · 5 K · 17 PA
13.6%
H 53·K 67
Samuel Basallo
LHB·3 HR / 70 PA·Brl 11.6%
12.7%
H 61·K 63
Leody Taveras
SHB·2 HR / 58 PA·Brl 9.1%
vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 0 HR · 1 K · 4 PA
11.9%
H 60·K 60
Sam Huff
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
11.6%
H 63·K 62
Pete Alonso
RHB·2 HR / 105 PA·Brl 7.0%
vs SP: 3-for-7 · .429 · 1 HR · 0 K · 8 PA
11.2%
H 59·K 66
Weston Wilson
RHB·0 HR / 13 PA·Brl 33.3%
11.1%
H 63·K 62
Johnathan Rodríguez
RHB·0 HR / 11 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.0%
H 62·K 62
Adley Rutschman
SHB·1 HR / 43 PA·Brl 3.6%
vs SP: 4-for-15 · .267 · 1 HR · 4 K · 16 PA
10.9%
H 66·K 56
Dylan Beavers
LHB·1 HR / 65 PA·Brl 2.4%
10.7%
H 57·K 65
Taylor Ward
RHB·1 HR / 114 PA·Brl 6.7%
vs SP: 0-for-5 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 6 PA
10.3%
H 60·K 51
Colton Cowser
LHB·0 HR / 57 PA·Brl 9.4%
10.2%
H 61·K 72
Home Lineup
Kansas City Royals
Carter Jensen
LHB·5 HR / 75 PA·Brl 14.3%
14.8%
H 71·K 60
Tyler Tolbert
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
11.8%
H 65·K 59
Jonathan India
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 5 PA
11.6%
H 64·K 58
Elias Díaz
RHB·0 HR / 4 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
11.3%
H 65·K 58
Vinnie Pasquantino
LHB·2 HR / 105 PA·Brl 7.5%
vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 0 HR · 0 K · 6 PA
11.2%
H 56·K 59
Jac Caglianone
LHB·1 HR / 79 PA·Brl 17.8%
11.1%
H 63·K 68
Salvador Perez
RHB·3 HR / 95 PA·Brl 10.6%
vs SP: 3-for-14 · .214 · 0 HR · 3 K · 19 PA
11.0%
H 62·K 59
Nick Loftin
RHB·0 HR / 14 PA·Brl 10.0%
11.0%
H 66·K 59
Starling Marte
RHB·0 HR / 24 PA·Brl 12.5%
vs SP: 1-for-8 · .125 · 0 HR · 2 K · 9 PA
10.4%
H 63·K 57
Maikel Garcia
RHB·2 HR / 107 PA·Brl 9.3%
vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 6 PA
10.4%
H 65·K 56
Michael Massey
LHB·1 HR / 31 PA·Brl 5.6%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
10.3%
H 64·K 59
Kyle Isbel
LHB·2 HR / 67 PA·Brl 4.8%
vs SP: 2-for-4 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 4 PA
10.0%
H 61·K 62
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.