Matchup · Wednesday, April 22, 2026
Milwaukee Brewers
at Detroit Tigers
6:40 PM ET · 3:40 PM PTComerica Park, Detroitopen roof
The Headline
Gary Sánchez enters this game with a 14.4% model-estimated probability of homering at Comerica Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor92
RHB HR factor94
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Chad Patrick
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedAbove average
ERA0.95
WHIP1.16
IP19.0
HR/90.50
K/94.3
xwOBA0.281
Barrel%6.8%
Hard-hit%40.7%
Home Starter · RHP
Casey Mize
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedLeague average
ERA2.78
WHIP1.19
IP22.2
HR/90.80
K/99.9
xwOBA0.304
Barrel%9.8%
Hard-hit%45.9%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Milwaukee Brewers
vs Casey Mize
Gary Sánchez
RHB·5 HR / 61 PA·Brl 20.7%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
14.4%
H 62·K 63
Jake Bauers
LHB·5 HR / 79 PA·Brl 11.5%
13.5%
H 64·K 58
Brice Turang
LHB·4 HR / 94 PA·Brl 11.8%
vs SP: 2-for-2 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
12.9%
H 67·K 63
Greg Jones
SHB·0 HR / 11 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.8%
H 63·K 65
Garrett Mitchell
LHB·1 HR / 72 PA·Brl 16.0%
10.7%
H 63·K 74
Luis Matos
RHB·0 HR / 18 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.6%
H 62·K 65
William Contreras
RHB·2 HR / 89 PA·Brl 6.3%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
10.5%
H 67·K 54
Blake Perkins
SHB·0 HR / 41 PA·Brl 4.2%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
9.7%
H 61·K 69
Joey Ortiz
RHB·0 HR / 59 PA·Brl 5.0%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
9.3%
H 61·K 63
Brandon Lockridge
RHB·0 HR / 62 PA·Brl 2.5%
9.3%
H 62·K 69
David Hamilton
LHB·0 HR / 64 PA·Brl 2.7%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
9.3%
H 66·K 60
Luis Rengifo
SHB·0 HR / 70 PA·Brl 7.8%
vs SP: 1-for-7 · .143 · 0 HR · 1 K · 7 PA
9.1%
H 63·K 57
Home Lineup
Detroit Tigers
vs Chad Patrick
Kerry Carpenter
LHB·4 HR / 73 PA·Brl 14.7%
13.9%
H 63·K 65
Dillon Dingler
RHB·5 HR / 83 PA·Brl 21.8%
13.6%
H 63·K 49
Jahmai Jones
RHB·1 HR / 23 PA·Brl 13.3%
12.3%
H 64·K 59
Wenceel Pérez
SHB·1 HR / 30 PA·Brl 8.3%
11.5%
H 62·K 49
Matt Vierling
RHB·1 HR / 45 PA·Brl 3.2%
11.3%
H 67·K 52
Hao-Yu Lee
RHB·0 HR / 15 PA·Brl 28.6%
11.3%
H 64·K 59
Riley Greene
LHB·1 HR / 98 PA·Brl 13.8%
10.7%
H 64·K 64
Javier Báez
RHB·1 HR / 65 PA·Brl 2.1%
10.4%
H 67·K 55
Kevin McGonigle
LHB·1 HR / 100 PA·Brl 12.9%
10.4%
H 70·K 49
Jake Rogers
RHB·0 HR / 24 PA·Brl 12.5%
10.3%
H 58·K 59
Spencer Torkelson
RHB·0 HR / 86 PA·Brl 7.0%
9.6%
H 57·K 62
Colt Keith
LHB·0 HR / 71 PA·Brl 9.6%
9.5%
H 65·K 55
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.