Matchup · Thursday, April 23, 2026

Atlanta Braves
at Washington Nationals

1:05 PM ET · 10:05 AM PTNationals Park, Washingtonopen roof

The Headline

Matt Olson enters this game with a 14.7% model-estimated probability of homering at Nationals Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.

Park Factors

LHB HR factor102

RHB HR factor101

Probable Starters

Away Starter · RHP

JR Ritchie

HR Vulnerability—

Contact Quality Allowed—

ERA—

WHIP—

IP—

HR/9—

K/9—

xwOBA—

Barrel%undefined%

Hard-hit%undefined%

Home Starter · RHP

Cade Cavalli

HR VulnerabilityElite

Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression

ERA4.12

WHIP1.73

IP19.2

HR/90.00

K/98.2

xwOBA0.338

Barrel%5.0%

Hard-hit%30.0%

The Lineups

Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.

High

Medium

Low confidence

Away Lineup

Atlanta Braves

vs Cade Cavalli

Matt Olson

LHB·7 HR / 112 PA·Brl 19.4%

14.7%

H 59·K 64

Drake Baldwin

LHB·7 HR / 115 PA·Brl 16.3%

14.1%

H 69·K 65

Michael Harris II

LHB·6 HR / 86 PA·Brl 14.5%

14.1%

H 72·K 60

Dominic Smith

LHB·4 HR / 58 PA·Brl 10.2%

13.4%

H 70·K 53

Austin Riley

RHB·3 HR / 107 PA·Brl 10.0%

12.6%

H 58·K 59

Eli White

RHB·1 HR / 26 PA·Brl 4.8%

11.7%

H 64·K 63

Jorge Mateo

RHB·1 HR / 24 PA·Brl 14.3%

11.6%

H 65·K 63

Ozzie Albies

SHB·4 HR / 106 PA·Brl 2.5%

11.3%

H 68·K 54

Kyle Farmer

RHB·0 HR / 7 PA·Brl 0.0%

vs SP: 2-for-3 · .667 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA

10.9%

H 64·K 62

Ronald Acuña Jr.

RHB·1 HR / 113 PA·Brl 14.1%

10.5%

H 61·K 61

Mauricio Dubón

RHB·2 HR / 90 PA·Brl 7.7%

10.2%

H 61·K 57

Jonah Heim

SHB·0 HR / 34 PA·Brl 4.5%

9.9%

H 67·K 56

Home Lineup

Washington Nationals

vs JR Ritchie

James Wood

LHB·9 HR / 123 PA·Brl 28.8%

—

CJ Abrams

LHB·6 HR / 105 PA·Brl 13.4%

—

Joey Wiemer

RHB·3 HR / 52 PA·Brl 7.7%

—

Daylen Lile

LHB·3 HR / 111 PA·Brl 4.9%

—

Curtis Mead

RHB·3 HR / 54 PA·Brl 10.0%

—

Brady House

RHB·2 HR / 98 PA·Brl 10.2%

—

Jacob Young

RHB·2 HR / 81 PA·Brl 5.0%

—

Keibert Ruiz

SHB·1 HR / 48 PA·Brl 5.4%

—

Luis García Jr.

LHB·1 HR / 83 PA·Brl 6.2%

—

Drew Millas

SHB·0 HR / 46 PA·Brl 3.4%

—

Jorbit Vivas

LHB·0 HR / 60 PA·Brl 0.0%

—

José Tena

LHB·0 HR / 44 PA·Brl 0.0%

—

A Note on These Numbers

HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.