Matchup · Thursday, April 23, 2026
Milwaukee Brewers
at Detroit Tigers
1:10 PM ET · 10:10 AM PTComerica Park, Detroitopen roof
The Headline
Kerry Carpenter enters this game with a 15.9% model-estimated probability of homering at Comerica Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor92
RHB HR factor94
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Brandon Sproat
HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone
Contact Quality AllowedBelow average
ERA6.88
WHIP1.71
IP17.0
HR/92.10
K/98.5
xwOBA0.366
Barrel%10.6%
Hard-hit%46.8%
Home Starter · LHP
Tarik Skubal
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedAbove average
ERA2.08
WHIP0.96
IP30.1
HR/90.30
K/99.8
xwOBA0.294
Barrel%6.4%
Hard-hit%41.0%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Milwaukee Brewers
vs Tarik Skubal
Gary Sánchez
RHB·5 HR / 65 PA·Brl 21.2%
vs SP: 0-for-10 · .000 · 0 HR · 5 K · 13 PA
13.3%
H 55·K 60
Jake Bauers
LHB·5 HR / 83 PA·Brl 10.5%
12.9%
H 65·K 58
Brice Turang
LHB·4 HR / 99 PA·Brl 10.5%
vs SP: 2-for-5 · .400 · 0 HR · 3 K · 5 PA
11.6%
H 65·K 64
Greg Jones
SHB·0 HR / 11 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.3%
H 63·K 65
Luis Matos
RHB·0 HR / 18 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
10.1%
H 62·K 65
William Contreras
RHB·2 HR / 93 PA·Brl 7.4%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
10.0%
H 64·K 54
Garrett Mitchell
LHB·1 HR / 76 PA·Brl 13.8%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
9.3%
H 61·K 74
Blake Perkins
SHB·0 HR / 41 PA·Brl 4.2%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
9.2%
H 60·K 69
David Hamilton
LHB·0 HR / 68 PA·Brl 2.4%
8.8%
H 63·K 63
Joey Ortiz
RHB·0 HR / 61 PA·Brl 5.0%
vs SP: 0-for-6 · .000 · 0 HR · 4 K · 6 PA
8.8%
H 60·K 64
Brandon Lockridge
RHB·0 HR / 66 PA·Brl 2.5%
8.8%
H 63·K 71
Luis Rengifo
SHB·0 HR / 72 PA·Brl 7.4%
vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 0 HR · 1 K · 4 PA
8.8%
H 66·K 57
Home Lineup
Detroit Tigers
Kerry Carpenter
LHB·5 HR / 77 PA·Brl 14.3%
15.9%
H 63·K 71
Dillon Dingler
RHB·5 HR / 83 PA·Brl 20.7%
14.6%
H 63·K 53
Jahmai Jones
RHB·1 HR / 24 PA·Brl 17.6%
13.0%
H 64·K 63
Wenceel Pérez
SHB·1 HR / 34 PA·Brl 8.0%
12.0%
H 62·K 53
Matt Vierling
RHB·1 HR / 45 PA·Brl 2.9%
12.0%
H 67·K 56
Hao-Yu Lee
RHB·0 HR / 15 PA·Brl 25.0%
11.9%
H 64·K 63
Riley Greene
LHB·1 HR / 102 PA·Brl 13.1%
11.3%
H 70·K 70
Kevin McGonigle
LHB·1 HR / 104 PA·Brl 12.0%
11.1%
H 72·K 53
Javier Báez
RHB·1 HR / 69 PA·Brl 2.0%
10.9%
H 66·K 55
Jake Rogers
RHB·0 HR / 27 PA·Brl 12.5%
10.9%
H 63·K 63
Spencer Torkelson
RHB·1 HR / 90 PA·Brl 6.8%
10.5%
H 57·K 70
Colt Keith
LHB·0 HR / 74 PA·Brl 9.4%
10.1%
H 66·K 60
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.