Matchup · Friday, April 24, 2026
Colorado Rockies
at New York Mets
7:10 PM ET · 4:10 PM PTCiti Field, Flushingopen roof
The Headline
Mickey Moniak enters this game with a 15.8% model-estimated probability of homering at Citi Field, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor95
RHB HR factor96
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Michael Lorenzen
HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone
Contact Quality AllowedAbove average
ERA7.48
WHIP2.12
IP21.2
HR/91.70
K/96.7
xwOBA0.373
Barrel%6.7%
Hard-hit%50.0%
Home Starter · RHP
Freddy Peralta
HR VulnerabilityVulnerable
Contact Quality AllowedAbove average
ERA4.05
WHIP1.09
IP26.2
HR/91.40
K/99.5
xwOBA0.315
Barrel%6.9%
Hard-hit%41.7%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Colorado Rockies
Mickey Moniak
LHB·8 HR / 72 PA·Brl 12.2%
vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 4 PA
15.8%
H 69·K 65
Hunter Goodman
RHB·6 HR / 97 PA·Brl 13.7%
vs SP: 1-for-1 · 1.000 · 1 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
15.8%
H 65·K 74
TJ Rumfield
LHB·3 HR / 100 PA·Brl 8.3%
11.5%
H 67·K 56
Jordan Beck
RHB·1 HR / 53 PA·Brl 2.5%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
11.5%
H 62·K 60
Brenton Doyle
RHB·1 HR / 76 PA·Brl 4.8%
vs SP: 1-for-7 · .143 · 1 HR · 4 K · 8 PA
11.3%
H 62·K 74
Edouard Julien
LHB·1 HR / 75 PA·Brl 9.3%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
11.3%
H 65·K 63
Troy Johnston
LHB·2 HR / 85 PA·Brl 3.5%
11.2%
H 70·K 63
Brett Sullivan
LHB·0 HR / 38 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.0%
H 61·K 64
Willi Castro
SHB·1 HR / 76 PA·Brl 7.1%
vs SP: 1-for-7 · .143 · 0 HR · 3 K · 7 PA
11.0%
H 63·K 74
Kyle Karros
RHB·1 HR / 86 PA·Brl 7.7%
10.7%
H 63·K 54
Ezequiel Tovar
RHB·1 HR / 98 PA·Brl 9.8%
vs SP: 3-for-9 · .333 · 2 HR · 2 K · 11 PA
10.2%
H 62·K 71
Jake McCarthy
LHB·0 HR / 55 PA·Brl 5.3%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 5 PA
10.1%
H 68·K 58
Home Lineup
New York Mets
Francisco Alvarez
RHB·4 HR / 80 PA·Brl 18.0%
vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 0 HR · 0 K · 4 PA
14.3%
H 64·K 54
Juan Soto
LHB·1 HR / 43 PA·Brl 10.7%
vs SP: 1-for-9 · .111 · 0 HR · 1 K · 9 PA
12.9%
H 71·K 55
MJ Melendez
LHB·1 HR / 18 PA·Brl 25.0%
vs SP: 1-for-10 · .100 · 0 HR · 3 K · 11 PA
12.8%
H 69·K 61
Jorge Polanco
SHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 2-for-6 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 6 PA
12.3%
H 66·K 61
Francisco Lindor
SHB·2 HR / 105 PA·Brl 9.5%
vs SP: 3-for-15 · .200 · 0 HR · 1 K · 15 PA
12.2%
H 71·K 58
Hayden Senger
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
12.2%
H 66·K 61
Mark Vientos
RHB·2 HR / 67 PA·Brl 4.3%
vs SP: 2-for-2 · 1.000 · 1 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
11.9%
H 66·K 61
Tyrone Taylor
RHB·1 HR / 36 PA·Brl 7.4%
vs SP: 0-for-0 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA
11.8%
H 65·K 59
Ronny Mauricio
SHB·0 HR / 8 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 2 PA
11.8%
H 65·K 61
Tommy Pham
RHB·0 HR / 12 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 3-for-12 · .250 · 1 HR · 5 K · 12 PA
11.6%
H 65·K 61
Luis Robert Jr.
RHB·2 HR / 94 PA·Brl 3.3%
vs SP: 3-for-16 · .188 · 0 HR · 4 K · 18 PA
11.4%
H 63·K 58
Luis Torrens
RHB·0 HR / 25 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.3%
H 64·K 61
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.