Matchup · Friday, April 24, 2026
Detroit Tigers
at Cincinnati Reds
6:40 PM ET · 3:40 PM PTGreat American Ball Park, Cincinnatiopen roof
The Headline
Sal Stewart enters this game with a 16.8% model-estimated probability of homering at Great American Ball Park, one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor115
RHB HR factor114
Probable Starters
Away Starter · LHP
Framber Valdez
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA3.30
WHIP1.20
IP30.0
HR/90.30
K/96.0
xwOBA0.290
Barrel%4.1%
Hard-hit%41.2%
Home Starter · LHP
Andrew Abbott
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedAbove average
ERA5.84
WHIP1.74
IP24.2
HR/90.70
K/95.5
xwOBA0.348
Barrel%6.8%
Hard-hit%35.2%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Detroit Tigers
Kerry Carpenter
LHB·5 HR / 79 PA·Brl 13.2%
16.4%
H 64·K 69
Dillon Dingler
RHB·5 HR / 87 PA·Brl 20.7%
15.3%
H 66·K 50
Jahmai Jones
RHB·2 HR / 25 PA·Brl 16.7%
vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 0 HR · 3 K · 5 PA
13.7%
H 65·K 59
Riley Greene
LHB·2 HR / 106 PA·Brl 12.7%
13.4%
H 72·K 62
Spencer Torkelson
RHB·2 HR / 94 PA·Brl 10.4%
13.4%
H 61·K 66
Hao-Yu Lee
RHB·0 HR / 15 PA·Brl 25.0%
12.7%
H 65·K 59
Matt Vierling
RHB·1 HR / 47 PA·Brl 2.9%
12.7%
H 68·K 53
Wenceel Pérez
SHB·1 HR / 37 PA·Brl 10.7%
12.7%
H 63·K 50
Kevin McGonigle
LHB·1 HR / 108 PA·Brl 13.0%
12.0%
H 73·K 50
Jake Rogers
RHB·0 HR / 27 PA·Brl 16.7%
11.6%
H 64·K 59
Javier Báez
RHB·1 HR / 72 PA·Brl 1.9%
11.6%
H 68·K 52
Colt Keith
LHB·0 HR / 77 PA·Brl 8.9%
10.8%
H 67·K 54
Home Lineup
Cincinnati Reds
Sal Stewart
RHB·8 HR / 108 PA·Brl 23.0%
16.8%
H 68·K 57
Elly De La Cruz
SHB·8 HR / 112 PA·Brl 15.9%
16.0%
H 65·K 66
Spencer Steer
RHB·4 HR / 86 PA·Brl 18.9%
14.0%
H 63·K 65
Tyler Stephenson
RHB·2 HR / 68 PA·Brl 13.2%
12.9%
H 57·K 68
Dane Myers
RHB·1 HR / 38 PA·Brl 16.0%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
12.5%
H 65·K 60
Eugenio Suárez
RHB·3 HR / 100 PA·Brl 8.2%
vs SP: 5-for-20 · .250 · 0 HR · 10 K · 24 PA
12.0%
H 58·K 64
Ke'Bryan Hayes
RHB·1 HR / 65 PA·Brl 7.5%
vs SP: 1-for-9 · .111 · 0 HR · 1 K · 9 PA
11.4%
H 56·K 50
Rece Hinds
RHB·0 HR / 27 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.3%
H 59·K 60
P.J. Higgins
RHB·0 HR / 12 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.3%
H 64·K 60
Will Benson
LHB·0 HR / 42 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
11.2%
H 63·K 58
Nathaniel Lowe
LHB·0 HR / 34 PA·Brl 4.3%
vs SP: 7-for-26 · .269 · 1 HR · 6 K · 30 PA
10.8%
H 64·K 58
Matt McLain
RHB·0 HR / 107 PA·Brl 7.8%
9.6%
H 61·K 58
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.