Matchup · Saturday, April 25, 2026
Colorado Rockies
at New York Mets
4:10 PM ET · 1:10 PM PTCiti Field, Flushingopen roof
The Headline
Mickey Moniak enters this game with a 16.5% model-estimated probability of homering at Citi Field, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor95
RHB HR factor96
Probable Starters
Away Starter · LHP
Jose Quintana
HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone
Contact Quality AllowedGetting barreled
ERA6.23
WHIP1.85
IP13.0
HR/92.10
K/92.8
xwOBA0.417
Barrel%14.3%
Hard-hit%34.7%
Home Starter · RHP
Kodai Senga
HR VulnerabilityVery HR-prone
Contact Quality AllowedBelow average
ERA8.83
WHIP1.90
IP17.1
HR/92.10
K/911.4
xwOBA0.316
Barrel%10.0%
Hard-hit%42.0%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Colorado Rockies
vs Kodai Senga
Mickey Moniak
LHB·8 HR / 77 PA·Brl 13.2%
vs SP: 1-for-7 · .143 · 1 HR · 3 K · 7 PA
16.5%
H 71·K 68
Hunter Goodman
RHB·6 HR / 102 PA·Brl 13.7%
vs SP: 1-for-6 · .167 · 0 HR · 2 K · 6 PA
16.1%
H 66·K 75
Jordan Beck
RHB·1 HR / 54 PA·Brl 2.5%
vs SP: 0-for-5 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 6 PA
11.8%
H 62·K 66
TJ Rumfield
LHB·3 HR / 105 PA·Brl 9.2%
11.8%
H 68·K 57
Brenton Doyle
RHB·1 HR / 80 PA·Brl 4.5%
vs SP: 0-for-5 · .000 · 0 HR · 3 K · 5 PA
11.6%
H 63·K 75
Edouard Julien
LHB·1 HR / 75 PA·Brl 8.7%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
11.6%
H 69·K 66
Troy Johnston
LHB·2 HR / 90 PA·Brl 3.3%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
11.4%
H 71·K 62
Willi Castro
SHB·1 HR / 76 PA·Brl 7.1%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
11.3%
H 63·K 75
Brett Sullivan
LHB·0 HR / 38 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.2%
H 61·K 65
Kyle Karros
RHB·1 HR / 91 PA·Brl 7.1%
10.8%
H 63·K 56
Ezequiel Tovar
RHB·1 HR / 102 PA·Brl 9.1%
vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 1 HR · 0 K · 5 PA
10.3%
H 58·K 71
Jake McCarthy
LHB·0 HR / 58 PA·Brl 5.0%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 2 K · 3 PA
10.3%
H 67·K 61
Home Lineup
New York Mets
Francisco Alvarez
RHB·4 HR / 84 PA·Brl 17.3%
12.9%
H 60·K 52
MJ Melendez
LHB·1 HR / 19 PA·Brl 25.0%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
12.8%
H 65·K 59
Juan Soto
LHB·1 HR / 47 PA·Brl 9.7%
vs SP: 2-for-13 · .154 · 0 HR · 3 K · 15 PA
12.7%
H 67·K 49
Francisco Lindor
SHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 4-for-25 · .160 · 0 HR · 6 K · 27 PA
12.5%
H 65·K 59
Jorge Polanco
SHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 5-for-12 · .417 · 1 HR · 1 K · 13 PA
12.3%
H 65·K 59
Hayden Senger
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
12.2%
H 65·K 59
Mark Vientos
RHB·2 HR / 71 PA·Brl 4.1%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
11.9%
H 64·K 60
Tyrone Taylor
RHB·1 HR / 39 PA·Brl 7.1%
vs SP: 2-for-6 · .333 · 0 HR · 3 K · 6 PA
11.9%
H 64·K 57
Ronny Mauricio
SHB·0 HR / 11 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.7%
H 64·K 59
Tommy Pham
RHB·0 HR / 12 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 6-for-25 · .240 · 1 HR · 4 K · 27 PA
11.7%
H 64·K 59
Brett Baty
LHB·1 HR / 80 PA·Brl 10.0%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
11.6%
H 64·K 64
Carson Benge
LHB·2 HR / 80 PA·Brl 6.0%
11.5%
H 60·K 54
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.