Matchup · Saturday, April 25, 2026
Detroit Tigers
at Cincinnati Reds
7:15 PM ET · 4:15 PM PTGreat American Ball Park, Cincinnatiopen roof
The Headline
Kerry Carpenter enters this game with a 17.5% model-estimated probability of homering at Great American Ball Park, one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor115
RHB HR factor114
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Jack Flaherty
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedLeague average
ERA3.47
WHIP1.59
IP23.1
HR/90.40
K/99.3
xwOBA0.347
Barrel%8.2%
Hard-hit%44.3%
Home Starter · RHP
Brady Singer
HR VulnerabilityAverage
Contact Quality AllowedAbove average
ERA5.32
WHIP1.65
IP23.2
HR/91.10
K/96.1
xwOBA0.357
Barrel%7.1%
Hard-hit%44.7%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Detroit Tigers
vs Brady Singer
Kerry Carpenter
LHB·6 HR / 81 PA·Brl 12.8%
vs SP: 1-for-10 · .100 · 0 HR · 4 K · 12 PA
17.5%
H 64·K 71
Jahmai Jones
RHB·2 HR / 28 PA·Brl 21.1%
15.9%
H 65·K 62
Dillon Dingler
RHB·5 HR / 92 PA·Brl 19.7%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
15.7%
H 65·K 52
Spencer Torkelson
RHB·3 HR / 98 PA·Brl 12.0%
vs SP: 3-for-15 · .200 · 1 HR · 4 K · 17 PA
15.7%
H 67·K 67
Riley Greene
LHB·3 HR / 111 PA·Brl 13.8%
vs SP: 3-for-14 · .214 · 0 HR · 5 K · 18 PA
14.4%
H 72·K 66
Wenceel Pérez
SHB·1 HR / 37 PA·Brl 9.7%
vs SP: 2-for-5 · .400 · 0 HR · 0 K · 6 PA
13.2%
H 63·K 52
Hao-Yu Lee
RHB·0 HR / 17 PA·Brl 25.0%
13.2%
H 62·K 62
Javier Báez
RHB·2 HR / 76 PA·Brl 1.8%
vs SP: 6-for-19 · .316 · 0 HR · 4 K · 21 PA
13.2%
H 67·K 54
Kevin McGonigle
LHB·1 HR / 113 PA·Brl 12.5%
12.4%
H 73·K 52
Matt Vierling
RHB·1 HR / 52 PA·Brl 2.9%
vs SP: 3-for-5 · .600 · 1 HR · 0 K · 5 PA
12.2%
H 65·K 57
Jake Rogers
RHB·0 HR / 27 PA·Brl 16.7%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
12.1%
H 64·K 62
Colt Keith
LHB·0 HR / 79 PA·Brl 8.6%
vs SP: 2-for-3 · .667 · 0 HR · 0 K · 5 PA
11.3%
H 67·K 55
Home Lineup
Cincinnati Reds
Sal Stewart
RHB·8 HR / 113 PA·Brl 23.0%
17.4%
H 64·K 63
Elly De La Cruz
SHB·8 HR / 117 PA·Brl 15.9%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 1 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
16.5%
H 67·K 70
Spencer Steer
RHB·4 HR / 91 PA·Brl 18.9%
vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 1 HR · 1 K · 5 PA
14.4%
H 66·K 71
Tyler Stephenson
RHB·2 HR / 72 PA·Brl 13.2%
vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 1 HR · 1 K · 4 PA
13.4%
H 58·K 74
Dane Myers
RHB·1 HR / 43 PA·Brl 16.0%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 2 K · 3 PA
12.9%
H 64·K 64
Eugenio Suárez
RHB·3 HR / 100 PA·Brl 8.2%
vs SP: 6-for-25 · .240 · 3 HR · 12 K · 29 PA
12.5%
H 57·K 69
Matt McLain
RHB·2 HR / 112 PA·Brl 7.8%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
12.3%
H 65·K 63
Nathaniel Lowe
LHB·2 HR / 39 PA·Brl 4.3%
vs SP: 2-for-6 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 7 PA
11.9%
H 64·K 63
P.J. Higgins
RHB·0 HR / 12 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.8%
H 63·K 64
Ke'Bryan Hayes
RHB·1 HR / 68 PA·Brl 7.5%
vs SP: 6-for-14 · .429 · 0 HR · 2 K · 17 PA
11.7%
H 55·K 54
Rece Hinds
RHB·0 HR / 31 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.7%
H 61·K 74
Will Benson
LHB·0 HR / 42 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
11.7%
H 62·K 63
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.