Matchup · Saturday, April 25, 2026
Pittsburgh Pirates
at Milwaukee Brewers
7:10 PM ET · 4:10 PM PTAmerican Family Field, Milwaukeeretractable roof
The Headline
Oneil Cruz enters this game with a 16.9% model-estimated probability of homering at American Family Field, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor106
RHB HR factor103
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Mitch Keller
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA2.79
WHIP1.10
IP29.0
HR/90.30
K/95.9
xwOBA0.300
Barrel%2.3%
Hard-hit%38.4%
Home Starter · RHP
Jacob Misiorowski
HR VulnerabilityVulnerable
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA3.04
WHIP1.09
IP26.2
HR/91.40
K/914.2
xwOBA0.273
Barrel%5.6%
Hard-hit%38.9%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Pittsburgh Pirates
Oneil Cruz
LHB·8 HR / 117 PA·Brl 23.4%
vs SP: 0-for-5 · .000 · 0 HR · 4 K · 5 PA
16.9%
H 58·K 79
Brandon Lowe
LHB·7 HR / 102 PA·Brl 11.5%
15.7%
H 62·K 74
Spencer Horwitz
LHB·2 HR / 80 PA·Brl 2.0%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 5 PA
12.7%
H 61·K 60
Ryan O'Hearn
LHB·4 HR / 100 PA·Brl 9.1%
12.7%
H 70·K 62
Marcell Ozuna
RHB·2 HR / 92 PA·Brl 10.5%
12.6%
H 55·K 76
Joey Bart
RHB·1 HR / 39 PA·Brl 9.5%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 3 PA
12.5%
H 60·K 79
Bryan Reynolds
SHB·3 HR / 115 PA·Brl 9.5%
vs SP: 2-for-5 · .400 · 0 HR · 1 K · 5 PA
12.0%
H 60·K 73
Konnor Griffin
RHB·1 HR / 77 PA·Brl 8.9%
11.1%
H 58·K 79
Nick Yorke
RHB·1 HR / 71 PA·Brl 6.0%
11.1%
H 57·K 64
Henry Davis
RHB·0 HR / 61 PA·Brl 5.3%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
10.7%
H 55·K 64
Jake Mangum
SHB·0 HR / 57 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.3%
H 68·K 60
Nick Gonzales
RHB·0 HR / 86 PA·Brl 1.6%
vs SP: 0-for-5 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 5 PA
9.9%
H 68·K 63
Home Lineup
Milwaukee Brewers
vs Mitch Keller
Jake Bauers
LHB·5 HR / 86 PA·Brl 10.0%
vs SP: 5-for-13 · .385 · 1 HR · 3 K · 13 PA
13.9%
H 66·K 53
Gary Sánchez
RHB·5 HR / 69 PA·Brl 17.9%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
13.8%
H 61·K 59
Brice Turang
LHB·4 HR / 107 PA·Brl 9.7%
vs SP: 4-for-19 · .211 · 1 HR · 7 K · 19 PA
12.7%
H 66·K 57
Greg Jones
SHB·0 HR / 12 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.8%
H 64·K 59
Luis Matos
RHB·0 HR / 21 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.6%
H 63·K 59
William Contreras
RHB·2 HR / 101 PA·Brl 6.8%
vs SP: 7-for-24 · .292 · 2 HR · 5 K · 26 PA
10.6%
H 63·K 50
Garrett Mitchell
LHB·1 HR / 79 PA·Brl 13.3%
vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 3 K · 5 PA
10.2%
H 63·K 69
Blake Perkins
SHB·0 HR / 45 PA·Brl 3.7%
vs SP: 0-for-7 · .000 · 0 HR · 3 K · 10 PA
9.7%
H 62·K 62
David Hamilton
LHB·0 HR / 74 PA·Brl 2.1%
9.5%
H 68·K 54
Sal Frelick
LHB·1 HR / 90 PA·Brl 1.6%
vs SP: 6-for-16 · .375 · 0 HR · 2 K · 19 PA
9.4%
H 63·K 50
Joey Ortiz
RHB·0 HR / 66 PA·Brl 4.5%
vs SP: 6-for-12 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 13 PA
9.4%
H 62·K 59
Luis Rengifo
SHB·0 HR / 79 PA·Brl 6.8%
vs SP: 2-for-4 · .500 · 1 HR · 0 K · 5 PA
9.3%
H 63·K 51
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.