Matchup · Sunday, April 26, 2026

Boston Red Sox
at Baltimore Orioles

1:35 PM ET · 10:35 AM PTOriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimoreopen roof

The Headline

Gunnar Henderson enters this game with a 14.4% model-estimated probability of homering at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.

Park Factors

LHB HR factor102

RHB HR factor93

Probable Starters

Away Starter · LHP

Connelly Early

HR VulnerabilityElite

Contact Quality AllowedGetting barreled

ERA2.88

WHIP1.32

IP25.0

HR/90.70

K/98.6

xwOBA0.371

Barrel%13.4%

Hard-hit%40.3%

Home Starter · RHP

Kyle Bradish

HR VulnerabilityElite

Contact Quality AllowedLeague average

ERA3.96

WHIP1.76

IP25.0

HR/90.70

K/910.1

xwOBA0.306

Barrel%8.1%

Hard-hit%37.8%

The Lineups

Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.

High

Medium

Low confidence

Away Lineup

Boston Red Sox

vs Kyle Bradish

Willson Contreras

RHB·5 HR / 111 PA·Brl 14.3%

vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 1 HR · 0 K · 3 PA

13.4%

H 59·K 75

Wilyer Abreu

LHB·4 HR / 109 PA·Brl 12.0%

vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 1 PA

12.0%

H 68·K 55

Jarren Duran

LHB·1 HR / 93 PA·Brl 12.1%

vs SP: 2-for-8 · .250 · 1 HR · 5 K · 8 PA

10.9%

H 65·K 70

Carlos Narváez

RHB·1 HR / 60 PA·Brl 7.3%

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 2 PA

10.7%

H 69·K 73

Marcelo Mayer

LHB·1 HR / 72 PA·Brl 11.8%

10.5%

H 63·K 55

Roman Anthony

LHB·1 HR / 97 PA·Brl 10.9%

vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA

10.4%

H 59·K 62

Trevor Story

RHB·2 HR / 119 PA·Brl 4.2%

vs SP: 1-for-12 · .083 · 1 HR · 6 K · 12 PA

10.2%

H 62·K 71

Andruw Monasterio

RHB·1 HR / 41 PA·Brl 4.3%

10.2%

H 63·K 66

Masataka Yoshida

LHB·0 HR / 56 PA·Brl 0.0%

vs SP: 1-for-7 · .143 · 0 HR · 2 K · 7 PA

9.9%

H 60·K 55

Connor Wong

RHB·0 HR / 35 PA·Brl 4.5%

vs SP: 2-for-4 · .500 · 1 HR · 1 K · 6 PA

9.7%

H 64·K 61

Caleb Durbin

RHB·1 HR / 96 PA·Brl 1.5%

9.6%

H 58·K 55

Ceddanne Rafaela

RHB·1 HR / 93 PA·Brl 6.7%

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA

9.5%

H 61·K 63

Home Lineup

Baltimore Orioles

vs Connelly Early

Gunnar Henderson

LHB·8 HR / 128 PA·Brl 12.0%

14.4%

H 58·K 70

Jeremiah Jackson

RHB·5 HR / 90 PA·Brl 9.4%

13.7%

H 62·K 61

Samuel Basallo

LHB·4 HR / 79 PA·Brl 11.8%

13.4%

H 69·K 62

Coby Mayo

RHB·3 HR / 77 PA·Brl 6.7%

12.9%

H 61·K 67

Adley Rutschman

SHB·3 HR / 52 PA·Brl 8.3%

12.7%

H 70·K 54

Pete Alonso

RHB·3 HR / 119 PA·Brl 7.2%

11.6%

H 59·K 67

Tyler O'Neill

RHB·1 HR / 38 PA·Brl 4.3%

11.5%

H 68·K 60

Leody Taveras

SHB·2 HR / 71 PA·Brl 7.0%

LHB·2 HR / 75 PA·Brl 5.8%

11.2%

H 66·K 64

Weston Wilson

RHB·0 HR / 13 PA·Brl 20.0%

10.7%

H 64·K 63

A Note on These Numbers

HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.