Matchup · Tuesday, April 28, 2026
Chicago Cubs
at San Diego Padres
9:40 PM ET · 6:40 PM PTPetco Park, San Diegoopen roof
The Headline
Seiya Suzuki enters this game with a 14.8% model-estimated probability of homering at Petco Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor91
RHB HR factor93
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Edward Cabrera
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedBelow average
ERA2.73
WHIP1.18
IP29.2
HR/90.60
K/96.7
xwOBA0.307
Barrel%10.5%
Hard-hit%37.2%
Home Starter · RHP
Walker Buehler
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA5.75
WHIP1.62
IP20.1
HR/90.40
K/98.9
xwOBA0.350
Barrel%4.8%
Hard-hit%38.7%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Chicago Cubs
Seiya Suzuki
RHB·5 HR / 74 PA·Brl 9.5%
vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 0 HR · 4 K · 6 PA
14.8%
H 72·K 66
Moisés Ballesteros
LHB·5 HR / 69 PA·Brl 12.8%
14.6%
H 72·K 54
Dansby Swanson
RHB·6 HR / 121 PA·Brl 13.0%
vs SP: 1-for-12 · .083 · 0 HR · 1 K · 13 PA
13.9%
H 63·K 47
Ian Happ
SHB·7 HR / 124 PA·Brl 15.2%
vs SP: 2-for-7 · .286 · 0 HR · 3 K · 7 PA
13.1%
H 59·K 56
Michael Busch
LHB·2 HR / 122 PA·Brl 8.9%
vs SP: 2-for-2 · 1.000 · 1 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
11.2%
H 63·K 69
Carson Kelly
RHB·2 HR / 83 PA·Brl 12.5%
vs SP: 2-for-14 · .143 · 0 HR · 3 K · 16 PA
10.8%
H 63·K 46
Nico Hoerner
RHB·4 HR / 136 PA·Brl 2.9%
vs SP: 2-for-5 · .400 · 0 HR · 0 K · 5 PA
10.8%
H 62·K 45
Miguel Amaya
RHB·2 HR / 55 PA·Brl 5.9%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
10.7%
H 60·K 58
Michael Conforto
LHB·0 HR / 34 PA·Brl 6.7%
vs SP: 3-for-11 · .273 · 2 HR · 3 K · 13 PA
10.0%
H 65·K 71
Matt Shaw
RHB·2 HR / 72 PA·Brl 7.7%
10.0%
H 65·K 54
Alex Bregman
RHB·3 HR / 136 PA·Brl 7.3%
vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 0 HR · 0 K · 5 PA
9.7%
H 58·K 48
Pete Crow-Armstrong
LHB·1 HR / 119 PA·Brl 5.6%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
8.7%
H 61·K 61
Home Lineup
San Diego Padres
Ty France
RHB·3 HR / 40 PA·Brl 16.7%
vs SP: 0-for-4 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 4 PA
13.2%
H 68·K 51
Luis Campusano
RHB·3 HR / 43 PA·Brl 12.9%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
12.9%
H 71·K 60
Gavin Sheets
LHB·4 HR / 88 PA·Brl 9.5%
vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 0 HR · 0 K · 5 PA
12.4%
H 60·K 62
Manny Machado
RHB·4 HR / 114 PA·Brl 5.6%
vs SP: 0-for-7 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 8 PA
11.9%
H 68·K 45
Ramón Laureano
RHB·4 HR / 115 PA·Brl 14.5%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
11.8%
H 63·K 60
Xander Bogaerts
RHB·4 HR / 114 PA·Brl 7.2%
vs SP: 0-for-5 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 6 PA
11.7%
H 69·K 43
Jackson Merrill
LHB·3 HR / 120 PA·Brl 11.5%
vs SP: 1-for-4 · .250 · 0 HR · 2 K · 5 PA
10.3%
H 60·K 59
Bryce Johnson
SHB·0 HR / 18 PA·Brl 0.0%
10.1%
H 63·K 52
Freddy Fermin
RHB·0 HR / 58 PA·Brl 0.0%
8.9%
H 59·K 51
Fernando Tatis Jr.
RHB·0 HR / 123 PA·Brl 12.0%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
8.6%
H 62·K 51
Nick Castellanos
RHB·0 HR / 55 PA·Brl 5.9%
vs SP: 2-for-13 · .154 · 0 HR · 4 K · 14 PA
8.6%
H 55·K 55
Miguel Andujar
RHB·0 HR / 68 PA·Brl 2.1%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
8.5%
H 64·K 48
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.