Matchup · Tuesday, April 28, 2026

Colorado Rockies
at Cincinnati Reds

6:40 PM ET · 3:40 PM PTGreat American Ball Park, Cincinnatiopen roof

The Headline

Mickey Moniak enters this game with a 17.9% model-estimated probability of homering at Great American Ball Park, one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.

Park Factors

LHB HR factor115

RHB HR factor114

Probable Starters

Away Starter

Starter not yet announced.

Home Starter · RHP

Chase Burns

HR VulnerabilityAverage

Contact Quality AllowedBelow average

ERA2.57

WHIP1.07

IP28.0

HR/91.30

K/99.6

xwOBA0.299

Barrel%10.0%

Hard-hit%42.0%

The Lineups

Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.

High

Medium

Low confidence

Away Lineup

Colorado Rockies

vs Chase Burns

Mickey Moniak

LHB·8 HR / 85 PA·Brl 11.7%

vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA

17.9%

H 69·K 68

Hunter Goodman

RHB·7 HR / 106 PA·Brl 14.5%

vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA

17.8%

H 64·K 74

TJ Rumfield

LHB·3 HR / 113 PA·Brl 8.4%

12.7%

H 64·K 55

Jordan Beck

RHB·1 HR / 57 PA·Brl 2.4%

vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 3 PA

12.6%

H 60·K 56

Edouard Julien

LHB·1 HR / 84 PA·Brl 9.4%

12.5%

H 68·K 67

Brett Sullivan

LHB·0 HR / 42 PA·Brl 0.0%

12.1%

H 60·K 55

Willi Castro

SHB·1 HR / 76 PA·Brl 7.1%

vs SP: 1-for-1 · 1.000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 1 PA

12.1%

H 62·K 64

Troy Johnston

LHB·2 HR / 98 PA·Brl 2.9%

11.4%

H 69·K 56

Kyle Karros

RHB·1 HR / 99 PA·Brl 6.5%

11.3%

H 57·K 47

Brenton Doyle

RHB·1 HR / 84 PA·Brl 4.3%

vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 3 PA

11.3%

H 61·K 63

Jake McCarthy

LHB·0 HR / 61 PA·Brl 4.4%

11.0%

H 69·K 50

Ezequiel Tovar

RHB·1 HR / 110 PA·Brl 8.3%

10.8%

H 56·K 63

Home Lineup

Cincinnati Reds

Elly De La Cruz

SHB·9 HR / 126 PA·Brl 16.9%

—

Sal Stewart

RHB·9 HR / 122 PA·Brl 21.7%

—

Nathaniel Lowe

LHB·4 HR / 48 PA·Brl 11.4%

—

Spencer Steer

RHB·4 HR / 99 PA·Brl 16.1%

—

Matt McLain

RHB·2 HR / 121 PA·Brl 9.7%

—

Tyler Stephenson

RHB·2 HR / 77 PA·Brl 12.2%

—

Dane Myers

RHB·1 HR / 47 PA·Brl 13.8%

—

Ke'Bryan Hayes

RHB·1 HR / 76 PA·Brl 11.7%

—

TJ Friedl

LHB·1 HR / 111 PA·Brl 2.7%

—

Jose Trevino

RHB·0 HR / 14 PA·Brl 0.0%

—

Rece Hinds

RHB·0 HR / 31 PA·Brl 0.0%

—

Will Benson

LHB·0 HR / 45 PA·Brl 0.0%

—

A Note on These Numbers

HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.