Matchup · Tuesday, April 28, 2026
Detroit Tigers
at Atlanta Braves
7:15 PM ET · 4:15 PM PTTruist Park, Atlantaopen roof
The Headline
Spencer Torkelson enters this game with a 16.9% model-estimated probability of homering at Truist Park, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor100
RHB HR factor104
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Casey Mize
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedLeague average
ERA2.51
WHIP1.15
IP28.2
HR/90.60
K/910.1
xwOBA0.287
Barrel%8.1%
Hard-hit%44.6%
Home Starter · LHP
Martín Pérez
HR VulnerabilityAverage
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA2.70
WHIP0.94
IP23.1
HR/91.20
K/95.4
xwOBA0.338
Barrel%5.8%
Hard-hit%40.6%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Detroit Tigers
vs Martín Pérez
Spencer Torkelson
RHB·5 HR / 107 PA·Brl 16.9%
vs SP: 5-for-21 · .238 · 0 HR · 5 K · 22 PA
16.9%
H 66·K 53
Kerry Carpenter
LHB·6 HR / 89 PA·Brl 10.6%
vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 0 HR · 1 K · 5 PA
16.0%
H 65·K 68
Dillon Dingler
RHB·5 HR / 96 PA·Brl 19.1%
vs SP: 0-for-5 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 5 PA
14.9%
H 60·K 50
Jahmai Jones
RHB·2 HR / 31 PA·Brl 23.8%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 1 HR · 0 K · 4 PA
14.8%
H 64·K 59
Hao-Yu Lee
RHB·1 HR / 20 PA·Brl 25.0%
14.1%
H 64·K 59
Riley Greene
LHB·3 HR / 120 PA·Brl 13.5%
vs SP: 2-for-9 · .222 · 0 HR · 2 K · 11 PA
13.8%
H 70·K 52
Kevin McGonigle
LHB·2 HR / 123 PA·Brl 14.3%
12.6%
H 72·K 43
Wenceel Pérez
SHB·1 HR / 43 PA·Brl 10.8%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 5 PA
12.2%
H 61·K 42
Javier Báez
RHB·2 HR / 80 PA·Brl 3.3%
vs SP: 5-for-20 · .250 · 0 HR · 4 K · 21 PA
11.9%
H 59·K 44
Jake Rogers
RHB·0 HR / 31 PA·Brl 15.0%
vs SP: 2-for-9 · .222 · 1 HR · 4 K · 11 PA
11.4%
H 61·K 65
Gleyber Torres
RHB·2 HR / 123 PA·Brl 6.3%
vs SP: 6-for-22 · .273 · 3 HR · 4 K · 25 PA
11.3%
H 66·K 51
Matt Vierling
RHB·1 HR / 61 PA·Brl 2.2%
vs SP: 2-for-14 · .143 · 0 HR · 4 K · 15 PA
10.6%
H 56·K 40
Home Lineup
Atlanta Braves
vs Casey Mize
Michael Harris II
LHB·6 HR / 100 PA·Brl 19.5%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
15.8%
H 72·K 55
Matt Olson
LHB·8 HR / 131 PA·Brl 17.6%
vs SP: 3-for-6 · .500 · 1 HR · 1 K · 8 PA
15.2%
H 70·K 60
Drake Baldwin
LHB·7 HR / 134 PA·Brl 15.1%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
13.5%
H 68·K 66
Austin Riley
RHB·3 HR / 124 PA·Brl 8.2%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.8%
H 57·K 62
Dominic Smith
LHB·4 HR / 68 PA·Brl 8.8%
vs SP: 0-for-1 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.6%
H 68·K 47
Eli White
RHB·2 HR / 38 PA·Brl 9.7%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
12.4%
H 62·K 59
Jorge Mateo
RHB·1 HR / 30 PA·Brl 12.5%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
11.8%
H 63·K 64
Ozzie Albies
SHB·5 HR / 124 PA·Brl 3.0%
vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 0 HR · 0 K · 5 PA
11.7%
H 69·K 47
Kyle Farmer
RHB·0 HR / 7 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
11.3%
H 63·K 56
Ronald Acuña Jr.
RHB·2 HR / 132 PA·Brl 12.8%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
11.0%
H 61·K 54
Jonah Heim
SHB·0 HR / 34 PA·Brl 4.0%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
10.1%
H 65·K 50
Mauricio Dubón
RHB·2 HR / 106 PA·Brl 7.5%
9.5%
H 59·K 53
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.