Matchup · Tuesday, April 28, 2026
Houston Astros
at Baltimore Orioles
6:35 PM ET · 3:35 PM PTOriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimoreopen roof
The Headline
Yordan Alvarez enters this game with a 16.8% model-estimated probability of homering at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor102
RHB HR factor93
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Kai-Wei Teng
HR VulnerabilityVulnerable
Contact Quality AllowedElite suppression
ERA2.16
WHIP0.90
IP16.2
HR/91.60
K/98.6
xwOBA0.262
Barrel%2.4%
Hard-hit%35.7%
Home Starter · RHP
Shane Baz
HR VulnerabilityElite
Contact Quality AllowedAbove average
ERA5.08
WHIP1.55
IP28.1
HR/90.60
K/97.3
xwOBA0.329
Barrel%6.6%
Hard-hit%38.5%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Houston Astros
vs Shane Baz
Yordan Alvarez
LHB·11 HR / 129 PA·Brl 18.8%
vs SP: 0-for-5 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 6 PA
16.8%
H 75·K 52
Christian Walker
RHB·7 HR / 118 PA·Brl 14.6%
14.6%
H 71·K 63
Shay Whitcomb
RHB·1 HR / 11 PA·Brl 33.3%
12.2%
H 64·K 62
Joey Loperfido
LHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
11.9%
H 64·K 53
Taylor Trammell
LHB·0 HR / 0 PA
11.8%
H 65·K 53
Isaac Paredes
RHB·3 HR / 98 PA·Brl 2.9%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
11.7%
H 64·K 45
Daniel Johnson
LHB·0 HR / 10 PA·Brl 0.0%
11.4%
H 64·K 53
Christian Vázquez
RHB·2 HR / 51 PA·Brl 2.6%
11.3%
H 60·K 47
Yainer Diaz
RHB·2 HR / 84 PA·Brl 4.4%
vs SP: 4-for-8 · .500 · 1 HR · 3 K · 9 PA
11.1%
H 66·K 52
Nick Allen
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
10.9%
H 65·K 53
Brice Matthews
RHB·1 HR / 50 PA·Brl 8.0%
10.4%
H 63·K 58
Jose Altuve
RHB·3 HR / 120 PA·Brl 7.3%
vs SP: 1-for-10 · .100 · 1 HR · 3 K · 10 PA
10.4%
H 60·K 57
Home Lineup
Baltimore Orioles
vs Kai-Wei Teng
Gunnar Henderson
LHB·9 HR / 132 PA·Brl 12.7%
15.5%
H 63·K 73
Samuel Basallo
LHB·5 HR / 83 PA·Brl 11.1%
14.4%
H 68·K 62
Jeremiah Jackson
RHB·5 HR / 93 PA·Brl 8.7%
14.3%
H 59·K 61
Coby Mayo
RHB·3 HR / 77 PA·Brl 8.3%
13.5%
H 63·K 66
Adley Rutschman
SHB·3 HR / 56 PA·Brl 6.8%
13.3%
H 70·K 53
Pete Alonso
RHB·3 HR / 123 PA·Brl 8.0%
vs SP: 1-for-1 · 1.000 · 1 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.1%
H 58·K 64
Leody Taveras
SHB·2 HR / 71 PA·Brl 6.5%
12.0%
H 59·K 49
Tyler O'Neill
RHB·1 HR / 42 PA·Brl 3.7%
11.9%
H 64·K 56
Johnathan Rodríguez
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
11.7%
H 63·K 54
Sam Huff
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
11.7%
H 63·K 54
Dylan Beavers
LHB·2 HR / 78 PA·Brl 5.6%
11.7%
H 65·K 55
Weston Wilson
RHB·0 HR / 13 PA·Brl 20.0%
11.2%
H 63·K 54
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.