Matchup · Saturday, May 2, 2026
Atlanta Braves
at Colorado Rockies
8:10 PM ET · 5:10 PM PTCoors Field, Denveropen roof
The Headline
Hunter Goodman enters this game with a 20.0% model-estimated probability of homering at Coors Field, one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor118
RHB HR factor122
Altitude5,200 ft
Probable Starters
Away Starter · LHP
Chris Sale
HR VulnerabilityAverage
Contact Quality AllowedLeague average
ERA2.31
WHIP0.91
IP35.0
HR/91.30
K/99.8
xwOBA0.277
Barrel%8.1%
Hard-hit%30.2%
Home Starter · LHP
Brennan Bernardino
HR Vulnerability—
Contact Quality Allowed—
ERA—
WHIP—
IP—
HR/9—
K/9—
xwOBA—
Barrel%undefined%
Hard-hit%undefined%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Atlanta Braves
Matt Olson
LHB·10 HR / 148 PA·Brl 18.3%
—
Ozzie Albies
SHB·7 HR / 141 PA·Brl 4.5%
—
Michael Harris II
LHB·7 HR / 109 PA·Brl 17.9%
—
Drake Baldwin
LHB·7 HR / 151 PA·Brl 13.7%
—
Dominic Smith
LHB·4 HR / 71 PA·Brl 8.6%
—
Austin Riley
RHB·3 HR / 139 PA·Brl 8.0%
—
Eli White
RHB·2 HR / 45 PA·Brl 8.8%
—
Mauricio Dubón
RHB·2 HR / 122 PA·Brl 6.7%
—
Ronald Acuña Jr.
RHB·2 HR / 150 PA·Brl 13.0%
—
Jorge Mateo
RHB·1 HR / 35 PA·Brl 11.8%
—
Kyle Farmer
RHB·0 HR / 13 PA·Brl 0.0%
—
Mike Yastrzemski
LHB·0 HR / 102 PA·Brl 3.0%
—
Home Lineup
Colorado Rockies
vs Chris Sale
Hunter Goodman
RHB·9 HR / 125 PA·Brl 15.9%
vs SP: 3-for-6 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 6 PA
20.0%
H 61·K 64
Mickey Moniak
LHB·9 HR / 102 PA·Brl 12.3%
17.7%
H 66·K 60
Edouard Julien
LHB·2 HR / 96 PA·Brl 10.5%
13.0%
H 68·K 60
Jordan Beck
RHB·1 HR / 67 PA·Brl 2.1%
vs SP: 0-for-6 · .000 · 0 HR · 6 K · 6 PA
13.0%
H 61·K 57
TJ Rumfield
LHB·3 HR / 131 PA·Brl 8.4%
12.5%
H 65·K 47
Willi Castro
SHB·1 HR / 89 PA·Brl 8.3%
vs SP: 2-for-7 · .286 · 0 HR · 3 K · 7 PA
12.4%
H 61·K 64
Brett Sullivan
LHB·0 HR / 47 PA·Brl 0.0%
12.1%
H 66·K 55
Tyler Freeman
RHB·1 HR / 69 PA·Brl 0.0%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 0 K · 3 PA
12.1%
H 65·K 47
Brenton Doyle
RHB·1 HR / 94 PA·Brl 3.8%
vs SP: 2-for-6 · .333 · 1 HR · 1 K · 6 PA
11.6%
H 62·K 61
Kyle Karros
RHB·1 HR / 112 PA·Brl 7.2%
11.5%
H 60·K 55
Troy Johnston
LHB·2 HR / 110 PA·Brl 2.7%
11.2%
H 68·K 55
Ezequiel Tovar
RHB·1 HR / 125 PA·Brl 7.6%
vs SP: 1-for-3 · .333 · 0 HR · 2 K · 3 PA
11.0%
H 56·K 62
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.