Matchup · Saturday, May 2, 2026
Baltimore Orioles
at New York Yankees
1:35 PM ET · 10:35 AM PTYankee Stadium, Bronxopen roof
The Headline
Ben Rice enters this game with a 20.0% model-estimated probability of homering at Yankee Stadium, one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks, the strongest HR spot on the board. Below: full lineups for both teams, ranked by expected HR output, alongside detailed profiles of both probable starters.
Park Factors
LHB HR factor120
RHB HR factor105
Probable Starters
Away Starter · RHP
Kyle Bradish
HR VulnerabilityGood
Contact Quality AllowedBelow average
ERA4.20
WHIP1.73
IP30.0
HR/90.90
K/99.3
xwOBA0.332
Barrel%10.2%
Hard-hit%38.6%
Home Starter · LHP
Ryan Weathers
HR VulnerabilityAverage
Contact Quality AllowedGetting barreled
ERA3.21
WHIP1.22
IP33.2
HR/91.30
K/910.7
xwOBA0.338
Barrel%12.4%
Hard-hit%44.9%
The Lineups
Each batter's probability of homering in the game, ranked.
High
Medium
Low confidence
Away Lineup
Baltimore Orioles
Samuel Basallo
LHB·5 HR / 96 PA·Brl 10.3%
17.5%
H 69·K 54
Gunnar Henderson
LHB·9 HR / 149 PA·Brl 11.4%
17.1%
H 62·K 65
Adley Rutschman
SHB·4 HR / 68 PA·Brl 7.8%
15.8%
H 67·K 48
Pete Alonso
RHB·5 HR / 138 PA·Brl 8.4%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 1 K · 2 PA
15.1%
H 60·K 56
Jeremiah Jackson
RHB·6 HR / 104 PA·Brl 9.1%
15.1%
H 63·K 59
Coby Mayo
RHB·3 HR / 88 PA·Brl 7.5%
15.0%
H 61·K 64
Dylan Beavers
LHB·2 HR / 93 PA·Brl 6.7%
13.0%
H 62·K 59
Tyler O'Neill
RHB·1 HR / 47 PA·Brl 3.4%
vs SP: 1-for-2 · .500 · 0 HR · 0 K · 2 PA
12.9%
H 63·K 58
Johnathan Rodríguez
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
12.8%
H 63·K 57
Sam Huff
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
12.8%
H 63·K 57
Leody Taveras
SHB·2 HR / 82 PA·Brl 5.9%
vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 0 HR · 3 K · 5 PA
12.8%
H 59·K 52
Colton Cowser
LHB·0 HR / 69 PA·Brl 10.0%
12.1%
H 62·K 65
Home Lineup
New York Yankees
vs Kyle Bradish
Ben Rice
LHB·11 HR / 127 PA·Brl 20.3%
vs SP: 3-for-5 · .600 · 1 HR · 0 K · 5 PA
20.0%
H 69·K 53
Aaron Judge
RHB·12 HR / 140 PA·Brl 27.0%
vs SP: 1-for-9 · .111 · 0 HR · 3 K · 14 PA
18.7%
H 71·K 57
Austin Wells
LHB·3 HR / 91 PA·Brl 5.4%
vs SP: 0-for-6 · .000 · 0 HR · 3 K · 6 PA
15.1%
H 65·K 47
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
LHB·3 HR / 125 PA·Brl 6.8%
vs SP: 0-for-2 · .000 · 0 HR · 2 K · 2 PA
14.8%
H 60·K 61
Trent Grisham
LHB·4 HR / 118 PA·Brl 13.7%
vs SP: 0-for-6 · .000 · 0 HR · 4 K · 7 PA
14.6%
H 57·K 53
Ryan McMahon
LHB·2 HR / 82 PA·Brl 8.9%
vs SP: 0-for-6 · .000 · 0 HR · 4 K · 7 PA
14.4%
H 60·K 63
Amed Rosario
RHB·4 HR / 67 PA·Brl 12.5%
vs SP: 0-for-3 · .000 · 0 HR · 1 K · 3 PA
13.9%
H 65·K 52
José Caballero
RHB·4 HR / 116 PA·Brl 2.5%
vs SP: 1-for-6 · .167 · 0 HR · 2 K · 7 PA
13.3%
H 61·K 49
Cody Bellinger
LHB·3 HR / 133 PA·Brl 6.5%
vs SP: 1-for-5 · .200 · 0 HR · 1 K · 5 PA
13.1%
H 62·K 49
Giancarlo Stanton
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
vs SP: 2-for-4 · .500 · 0 HR · 2 K · 5 PA
12.6%
H 64·K 55
Randal Grichuk
RHB·0 HR / 0 PA
12.4%
H 64·K 55
Paul Goldschmidt
RHB·1 HR / 38 PA·Brl 25.0%
vs SP: 2-for-6 · .333 · 0 HR · 3 K · 6 PA
12.3%
H 58·K 55
A Note on These Numbers
HR probabilities come from our calibrated probability model combining season stats, recent form, Statcast quality, handedness splits, and park effects. Even the top pick on any given day misses 75-80% of the time — home runs are genuinely rare events. See the calibration page for how accurate these numbers have been historically.